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Climate scientists have been making meticulous measurements over recent decades that show conclusively the warming that has occurred due to the burning of fossil fuels releasing large amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. There is no question that warming is occurring, resulting in significant changes in the timing of specific events we associate with the changes of the seasons. (The study of the timing of seasonal events, such as ice break, or spring flood, is called phenology.) Such changes can negatively affect particular species whose survival strategy involves particular seasonal events occurring at particular times of the year. For example, if a species of migratory bird depends on being present during the bloom of a particular plant, but spring starts earlier by several weeks while the migration doesn’t, missing the bloom will threaten the bird species survival.
Measurements from the last few decades show clear evidence of change, but climate scientists would like to compare their detailed data to periods before the industrial revolution began to change the climate. Records of the weather go back for centuries, but they are generally not as detailed as current ones.
Enter Henry David Thoreau. He is well known as a naturalist and a philosopher, but it turns out he kept an extremely detailed record of the climate, as well as significant seasonal events, along the Sudbury River in Massachusetts from 1850 through 1860.
Thoreau created an impressive data set from 1850 through 1860, including the 6,000 entries [researcher] Thorson has cataloged so far by reading line-by-line, indexing, and creating a spreadsheet. Thoreau recorded examples of phenology along the river—for instance, when the first ice occurred, when the river was completely frozen, when the first snow fell, and when the breakup of ice occurred.
"From these observations, we can establish the timings of discrete phenomena from the mid-19th century using simple statistics," says Thorson. "The next step is to compare those timings with the modern era using publicly available data; for example, minimum stream discharges from the U.S. Geological Survey."
Rather than seeing the year on a calendar, Thorson categorized how Thoreau saw not four, but ten discrete seasons whose exact dates were fluid and based on the physical conditions he observed rather than celestial happenings or arbitrary dates. These seasons included breakup, inland sea, aquatic spring, riparian spring, summer, drought, aquatic autumn, riparian autumn, freeze up, and winter white.
As an example of how much the climate has changed since Thoreau made his record, the yearly ice break would, on occasion, involve two-foot-thick chunks of ice flowing down the river, taking out bridges and docks along the way. Nowadays, the river barely freezes.
With Thoreau’s baseline from his meticulous records, climate scientists have a great opportunity to understand just how much the climate has changed, and interpret how it will affect vulnerable species.
Comments are below the fold.
Top Comments (May 8, 2025):
From Tangentially Yours:
This was in Dfh1’s diary about Lauren Underwood challenging Kristi Noem! I have heard of her, but learned more. MikefromOrland made a great suggestion of let's get it together and say what we want. Be who we are. We aspire to a pretty cool world view! MikefromOrland says let's take some time and cue it up. Who do we want in this discussion? What can we name it? The Basic Person's Bill of Rights!
Getting really elemental here.
Top Mojo (May 7, 2025):
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