In my series on defeating MAGA’s authoritarianism I mentioned that we don’t know for sure what is the threshold for public opinion that would sway the legislature and I still won’t say this is a done deal, but I hypothesized 40% and lower to be our initial goal.
We’re here (faster than I expected). And look what we are seeing. Tillis found the faintest, barest, most tepid resistance check he could muster against Trump’s DC Attorney choice Ed Martin. It is a position he couldn’t find his way to a few months ago.
This may seem meaningless but it really isn’t for two reasons.
- Though we should have seen cabinet push back and didn’t and now are all paying for it, this DC Attorney role is extremely important. The courts are the only thing right now duct taping this system together and Ed Martin a Jan 6 denier would be able to real damage as a prosecutor in DC as he has already shown in his politicization of his current role in this regard so this is a major preventative measure.
- Because Ed Martin is a Jan 6 denier, this is an even more of an affront to Trump given this is a pseudo swipe against the election denial loyalty test. Further, Trump has specifically worked publicly and privately to get Ed Martin across the finish line. This was not meaningless, it was in fact a very direct rebuke to Trump.
Now is this an exception? Maybe, but Tillis could have made moves like this earlier and didn’t. I think it isn’t an accident that public opinion has swayed this much and it is at this specific time that he makes such a decision. This suggests polling is at least factoring in at the margins.
Similar Recent Encouraging Signs
- We are also seeing more friction and chaos to “the Big Beautiful Bill” from swing district Republicans who know, IF there will be legitimate mid terms and this bill passes, they are on track for a result that makes the 2010 shellacking look like a bump in the road.
- And let’s not forget that Musk no longer rooms with Trump. Musk poured money into Trump’s campaign and is still the richest man in the world. He wrecked agency after agency and even tapped into the Treasury directly. For Trump this must have been success beyond his wildest imagination.
- Let this sink in for a moment.
- Musk is now leaving with reputation ruined, and his companies, especially Tesla in freefall, but why now?
- Again the timing seems to fit with the polling timing and his departure (at least as it seems at the moment) should not be considered as an eventual inevitability.
- Note Musk was very quickly unpopular, but Trump kept him and he also seemingly planned to continue in spite of the clear animosity he engendered. Trump if anything enabled him even more in the past months. It is only recently as Trump’s polling has begun to drop has he seemingly seen Musk as a liability and Musk of course sees the writing on the wall for himself.
- Moreover, one could argue this was clear months ago. My theory, and this is just wild speculation, is he assumed he could enrich himself sufficiently to more than compensate for any damage done to the companies he owned and probably recover them over time. Critically though, that depends on the tight nit, ironclad, relationship with Trump.
- Since he is a liability for Trump now, this relationship seems less secure for Musk, so he is taking whatever data he likely stowed away and returning to the private sector(at least to some degree). I am sure he will still get government tacit support in ways that will sicken us all, but maybe not the obscene theft he was originally expecting.
Driving the polling down is essential and keeping it down is as well, even at this point. Where the floor is and how much this will empower push back or stay Trump’s hand remains to be seen. The evidence suggests though that we are already seeing movement at a point when other Presidents faced pressure so that hopefully continues to build and spiral.
