It Wasn’t Latino Men—It Was White Women.
Time to Face the Numbers
The Democratic Party is at a critical juncture. In its relentless and often futile pursuit of the mythical white working-class male voter, it has overlooked a more promising, more winnable path: solidifying and expanding its share of the white vote—particularly white women—while continuing to earn and energize the unwavering support of Black male and female voters, especially working-class voters. It's time for the party to stop chasing nostalgia and start facing the future.
This essay was triggered by the article "White women consistently voted for Trump, including my sister"—a powerful reminder that many white women continue to vote against their interests, and that this stubborn consistency must be acknowledged and addressed if the Democratic Party is to claim meaningful and enduring electoral victories.
The Problem Isn’t Just the White Working-Class Male—It’s Broader
For years, pundits and party strategists have insisted that winning back the white working-class man—worn boots, flannel shirt, and all—is the key to regaining power. But election after election has shown that this demographic is largely locked in, politically and culturally, to a GOP identity rooted in grievance, nationalism, and racial resentment. Meanwhile, another group—white women—continues to vote in significant numbers for Republican candidates, and their impact is far more consequential than many Democrats are willing to admit.
In 2024, white women supported Donald Trump over Kamala Harris by a margin of 53% to 46%. That seven-point gap, multiplied across an electorate where white women made up nearly 37% of voters, significantly contributed to Trump's 1.5% national popular vote victory. If Harris had flipped just 5% more of the white women’s vote, that would have created a 1.5–1.7% swing in her favor, more than enough to overcome the deficit and potentially win the presidency. This isn't hypothetical math; it's an electoral reality.
The Swing State Factor
The impact of white women was especially pronounced in swing states:
- Pennsylvania: White women voted for Trump by a margin of 55% to 43%. A 5-point swing could have flipped the state.
- Michigan: White women voted for Trump 54% to 44% for Harris. A small shift would have changed the outcome.
- Wisconsin: Trump won narrowly, and the white women's vote again broke his way.
- Georgia: Black women delivered overwhelmingly strong support for Harris, but the support of white women diluted their impact.
In all of these states, the white women's vote wasn't just a factor—it was the difference.
The Base Must Not Be Forgotten: Black Voters Deserve More Than Lip Service
At the same time, the party must remain deeply rooted in the support of Black male and female voters. In 2024, Black women voted for Kamala Harris at a rate of 92%, and Black men at a rate of 77%. This support provided a firewall in key states and a moral center for the party.
But loyalty should not be mistaken for permanence. If the party fails to deliver economic security, voting protections, healthcare, and opportunity to Black communities, it risks demobilizing the very voters who power its victories.
Don’t Scapegoat Latino Voters—Understand Their Stakes
Latino voters—especially Latino men—are often held up as a scapegoat for Democratic losses. But math tells a different story. While some Latino men did shift toward Trump in 2024, their share of the overall electorate is significantly smaller than that of white women. It was white women, not Latino men, who tipped the balance in many swing states.
Moreover, the Democratic Party must reckon with the real pain and political consequences of the current immigration and deportation crisis. Communities across the country are watching families being torn apart and immigrant workers being treated as disposable. That trauma doesn’t disappear at the ballot box—it shows up in voting behavior, enthusiasm, and trust.
According to Pew Research Center, immigration remains a top concern among Latino voters, with more than 70% saying it influences their vote. Deportation policies and the treatment of immigrants, especially under Democratic administrations, play a key role in turnout. In 2024, states such as Arizona and Nevada experienced significant declines in Latino youth turnout, a trend directly linked to policy disillusionment. If Democrats want to earn the long-term loyalty of Latino voters, they need to offer bold, compassionate, and consistent immigration policy—not just lip service during campaign season.
Young White Men: Disillusioned Yet Privileged, the White Patriarchy
Although this essay primarily focuses on white women, I will digress to examine a white gender group that has garnered considerable attention in post-election analysis: the growing bloc of young, disillusioned white men, aged 18 to 29. In 2024, the voter turnout among these white men declined by nearly 7% compared to 2020. In states like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, this drop was enough to widen Trump’s margins. Many of these voters have not aligned with either political party, feeling frustrated by economic precarity, political dysfunction, and cultural alienation. However, it is also critical to acknowledge that young white men, regardless of their disillusionment, still benefit—often witty or unwittingly—from the structural advantages of white patriarchy. The dynamic must be named and challenged. Even as these men struggle economically, they remain buffered by racial and gendered systems that disadvantage Black and Latino people and sideline white women’s interests. Rather than allowing this disillusionment to be weaponized into grievance politics, Democrats should use it as an entry point for political education and solidarity-building that recognizes shared interests, such as housing affordability, student debt, job opportunities in a changing economy, and a fairer social contract, while refusing to ignore their entrenched privilege.
White Women and the Blind Spot of Racial Identity
One of the most under-analyzed realities in Democratic politics is the role that white racial identity and white supremacy play in shaping the political behavior of white women. While many white women support issues that align with Democratic priorities, their voting behavior often reveals a prioritization of race over gender solidarity or policy preference. The GOP has mastered the art of exploiting this tension.
Democrats must confront this reality head-on. The goal should be to win over persuadable white women—especially college-educated and suburban voters—by naming and addressing systemic inequality, not avoiding it.
White Democratic Women Are Already Leading
Here’s a truth worth celebrating: there are more white Democratic women in Congress than Republican women. Leaders like Elizabeth Warren, Amy Klobuchar, Tammy Baldwin, and Elissa Slotkin represent a future that is progressive, competent, and rooted in values. At the state level, governors like Gretchen Whitmer (MI), Janet Mills (ME), Kathy Hochul (NY), and Laura Kelly (KS) show that white women can win while staying true to Democratic principles.
And 2025 shows even more promise. Rising stars like Mikie Sherrill (NJ) and Abigail Spanberger (VA) are running strong gubernatorial campaigns, signaling that white Democratic women are not just present—they're leading.
A New Coalition, A New Direction
Winning in 2026 and beyond means shifting from a party that reacts to losses by pining for a fading past to a party that builds coalitions for a better future. That future must include:
- Targeted outreach to white women, especially under 50 and college-educated
- Bold economic policies that serve all working-class people
- Continued investment in Black and brown communities, not just at election time
- A strategic message to engage disillusioned young white men that does not ignore the entrenched privilege of patriarchy
- A clear moral vision that challenges white supremacy and gender inequality
Conclusion: Stop Looking Back—Start Leading Forward
The Democratic Party must stop chasing white voters who’ve already walked away and instead invest in those ready to move forward, such as young white men and white women—the power to win lies in a coalition that reflects America as it is and could be.
Winning over white women and young white men —without losing the heart and soul of Black voters—is not only possible, it is imperative. It’s time to start mobilizing the future that’s already waiting.
Update:
While the Washington Post dives into “MAGA and the single girl,” examining how conservative young white women mix faith, family, and wellness into their ideology, it’s worth asking: where’s the equivalent spotlight on young, independent, progressive white women? Media coverage skews toward conservative feminine narratives, leaving progressive Black, Latino, independent, and progressive white women's voices underrepresented even as they shape Democratic local and national policy debates.
Final thought
Uncovering and amplifying the stories of young progressive and independent white women isn’t just about fairness—it’s essential for a well-rounded cultural, economic, and political conversation.
