Russian forces conducted a series of drone strikes against Ukraine on the night of June 18 to 19.
The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched 104 Shahed and decoy drones from the directions of Kursk and Oryol cities; Millerovo, Rostov Oblast; Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Krasnodar Krai; and occupied Cape Chauda, Crimea.[96] The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian forces shot down 40 drones and that 48 drones were “lost” or suppressed by Ukrainian electronic warfare (EW) systems. Ukrainian officials reported that Russian drones struck residential and civilian infrastructure objects in Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv oblasts.[97]
understandingwar.org/...
Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian forces shot down 40 drones and that 48 drones were “lost” or suppressed by Ukrainian electronic warfare (EW) systems
Ukraine continues to invest heavily in systems designed to shoot these drones down. Current efforts include:
-
Interceptor drones capable of chasing down and destroying Shaheds mid-air. These are relatively new and only recently entered active service.
-
Electronic warfare (EW) systems, which have proven quite effective, disrupting a significant share of the drones launched nightly. Though effective, these systems require constant updates—a priority for Ukrainian engineers.
-
Advanced systems like Sky Sentinel, which use artificial intelligence to detect and neutralize Shaheds even with conventional weapons like machine guns.
Shahed drones are weapons of urban terror and civilian destruction. They are not designed to eliminate factories or airfields but are highly effective in maintaining a constant state of fear and pressure among civilian populations. Russia has been using them to bombard Ukrainian cities for three years. Other nations with access to Shaheds are likely to follow suit.
According to preliminary data, 269 occupants were neutralized in this sector, 171 of them were irrevocably eliminated. The Ukrainian military also destroyed one satellite communications terminal, eight vehicles, a buggy, an ATV, three motorcycles, seven unmanned aerial vehicles of various types and one electronic warfare station. Two ATVs, a motorcycle and an enemy cannon were severely damaged.
- In the Novopavlivka sector, Ukrainian defenders repelled seven attacks in the vicinity of Zaporizhzhia, Perestroika, Bahatyr, Novosilka and Shevchenko. Two more firefights are still ongoing.
- In the Huliaipil sector, the enemy launched an air strike on Zaliznychne.
- In the Prydniprovsky sector, enemy units tried to advance once, but were unsuccessful.
- In other areas, there were no significant changes in the situation.
Glory to the Ukrainian defenders!
Glory to Ukraine!
Russian officials appear to be struggling to posture Russia's economic strength amid increasing signs of a slowing Russian economy. Russian Central Bank Chairperson Elvira Nabiullina stated at SPIEF on June 19 that Russia's economy grew at a high rate for two years because Russia was using "free resources," including Russia’s workforce, production capacity, import substitution, the liquid assets of the National Welfare Fund, and the banking system’s capital reserve.[25] Nabiullina stated that Russia has exhausted many of these resources and needs to think of a new growth model. Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov acknowledged that the Russian economy is "cooling," but claimed that more positive trends are on the horizon and that Russia's current economic model is working.[26] The Moscow Times claimed that, according to Russia's Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat), Russia's unemployment rate has dropped to a historic low of just 2.3 percent and that mass emigration and military drafting of men have exacerbated labor shortages.[27] The Moscow Times further noted that, according to Rosstat, the liquid assets of Russia's sovereign wealth fund has decreased threefold to 2.8 trillion rubles (roughly $35.7 billion) since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.[28] Russia's Minister of Economic Development Maxim Reshetnikov stated that Russia is on the "brink of recession" and noted that Russia's strict monetary policy is hindering the ability of industries outside of the defense industrial base (DIB) to attract investments.[29] ISW observed recent reporting that the Kremlin is trying to promote social optimism at SPIEF rather than its traditional focus on foreign investment, and Russian official statements about Russian economic issues are complicating these efforts.[30] These Russian economic officials may be attempting to temper some of the Kremlin's expectation-setting among domestic Russian audiences about the impacts of a prolonged war effort in Ukraine without completely contradicting official Kremlin rhetoric that Russia can wage protracted war against Ukraine indefinitely.
understandingwar.org/...
- The West has failed to convince Russian President Vladimir Putin to reevaluate his theory of victory in Ukraine in the past year. Putin’s public statements indicate that he continues to assess that Russian forces will be able to win a war of attrition by sustaining gradual advances along the frontline indefinitely.
- Putin's theory of victory is predicated on critical assumptions about Ukraine's capabilities and continued Western support for Ukraine – conditions that the West can still change.
- Putin continued Russia's reflexive control campaign that aims to deter Western provisions of military aid to Ukraine and NATO rearmament but appears to be adapting this campaign for different audiences.
- Putin explicitly stated that he will not sign a peace agreement with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
- Putin used his meeting with international journalists to reinject longstanding Kremlin rhetorical lines into the media space, as ISW previously forecasted.
- Russian officials appear to be struggling to posture Russia's economic strength amid increasing signs of a slowing Russian economy.
- Ukraine and Russia conducted the fifth prisoner of war (POW) exchange in accordance the June 2 Istanbul agreements, amid reports that Russia artificially inflated the number of bodies released to Ukraine in previous killed in action (KIA) exchanges.
- Ukrainian forces advanced in northern Sumy Oblast. Russian forces advanced near Kupyansk, Toretsk, and Novopavlivka.
https://t.co/eFJ2IfYM85
understandingwar.org/...
understandingwar.org/...
understandingwar.org/...
understandingwar.org/...
understandingwar.org/...
understandingwar.org/...
