The Russians are afraid that the US might use a tactical nuclear weapon to take out Iran's underground nuclear facility called Fordo.
The reason is that some are saying that the GRU-57A/B 30,000 lb. bunker buster bombs might not be enough. Even multiple bombs hitting the same spot.
Kremlin spokesman Dimitri Peskov postulated, "There is a lot of speculation now. Such a development of events would be catastrophic, but there is so much speculation that it is actually impossible to comment on it."
The Guardian reports that Trump was not presented with a tactical nuclear weapon option in the Situation Room meetings. Trump needed to be convinced that the bunker buster bomb would do the job were the US to enter the war. This appears to be behind the sudden two-week delay Trump put out in a statement yesterday.
Fordo nuclear facility now underground. Guardian graphic. Source: Institute for Science and International Security and Planet Labs
In a briefing, defense officials were told they would need conventional bombs to soften the ground and then drop a tactical nuclear weapon to completely take out Fordo. It's always been described as being in a mountain, but there are two buildings underground and one above ground.
Stopping Fordo's uranium enrichment through military or through diplomacy is necessary to end the development of nuclear weapons. The IAEA, the International Atomic Energy Agency says Iran has uranium enriched to 83.7%. How they could know that without direct observation they no longer have, since Trump pulled us out of the agreement Obama negotiated, is not specified. But once Iran hits 90%, they've got weapons grade uranium. That could happen in weeks. Two weeks is what estimates always say about Iran's ability to make weapons grade uranium.
Were the US to use a nuclear weapon when diplomacy could have solved the problem, maybe, would bring down universal condemnation across the globe. It should be an anything but option.
At the same time, Iran says no negotiations about their nuclear program will happen unless Israel stops attacking. Iran Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said before a meeting with the EU, "We are not ready to negotiate with any side while the Israeli aggression continues. We told the Americans clearly: as long as the attacks persist, there can be no negotiations. We are exercising our legitimate rights to self-defense." He also said that the missile production program was off the table, which is necessary for both defense and offense.
Araghchi also pointed out Trump's use of "we" in recent statements. "... the tweets and interviews given by that country's president, where he explicitly uses the word 'we' saying we did this, we carried out this action, this must happen, that must happen.. Well, that makes the case clear without needing further evidence. The presence and participation of the US in this scene is evident."
This is a picture of a US base in Qatar where the 40 planes that were out in the open have moved to another location or put into hangers. Another sign of war preparation by the US.
Trump has demanded Iran to make an "unconditional surrender," which Khamenei basically laughed at. And Trump also said that the US knows exactly where Khamenei is but don't want to have to kill him, right now. The two weeks option to negotiate is a worthless waste of time unless Israel stops the attack. So, the ball is in Israel's corner like it always was. Trump is just a weak player in the game, but advancing military forces sent to the region must give Iran some pause.
AI is being used in by Israel. It is being used to select sites and individuals to target. AP reported earlier this year that Israeli is using AI models supplied by the US. Not just with Iran but with Hamas in Gaza, and Hezbollah in Jordan.
In the first one one supplied by the IDF, there is a shadow on the plane that extends over the containers on the right. The plane has a weird shape, too. Don't know how these anomalies occurred because in the comments, centerline provided a video of the real delivery that shows a lot of pallets of containers lined up.
I though it was AI generated.
I thought it was AI generated, too.
The second picture has the same problem with blurs and shadows and the plane itself.
So, I've been fooled by picture problems that make it look like AI generation. If the IDF had just used a wider view, I would have passed on calling it AI generated.
The Iranians are using AI for propaganda to keep the populace thinking Iran is being anything besides ineffectual in the conflict.
This picture the BBC verified is a fake of two towers in Israel.
AI generated by Iran of two Israeli towers.
This one is a fake of a downed F-35. Just the size of the people standing around is a dead giveaway.
AI generated F-35.
Here's a detailed article by 404 Media on AI's use in the war.
This one is also AI, but the dead giveaway is an engine still running in a crashed plane.
Really obvious AI.
Then there are old videos and pictures being represented as new, in locations that don't match, and even high resolution video games like flight simulators being used to create propaganda.
Because anybody can create fake videos and pictures using AI now, you've got both patriotic individuals and governments creating it. I had my suspicions about the two IDF pictures, but I didn't see it until I zoomed in on spots and then it was readily apparent.
The information war has always been there, but it's getting harder and harder to know the difference between the real and the fake in this war.
AI being used to target is an expected use. There has been discussion about the use of AI in actually making the firing decisions, but it can also make mistakes in identification as well, that take out civilians instead of military personnel. Identification of buildings as military instead of civilian. Iran just hit an Israeli hospital with a missile, by accident they say. How much guiding did this missile have? Was there a controller like on a drone? Israel has now vowed even more retribution than before.
Say goodbye to that two week breather that Trump thought he had. Israel will keep attacking till they're done. And it looks like Khamenei is a target. What happens then?
Khamenei could die and the military could create videos of him. They've got lots of real samples to recreate him and his voice. Last videos I looked at had him talking on a stage with other people around him, and crowds holding up pictures of killed military leaders. Real, not faked. Things change if it's just him on camera, delivering a message to the people. I would look really hard at the first one of those that shows up. In the meantime he keeps posting messages on X, but anyone could be doing that.
It's a whole different type of war playing out now, especially with the use of drones on both sides. AI is now part of the mix. Let's hope the US stays out of it.
