With the deepest respect toward this platform’s aversion to conspiracy theories, which is apparently responsible for the virtual silence about alleged “irregularities” in our own November 2024 election, it’s worth noting that another major Western democracy is embroiled in political unrest and court battles over the outcome of its Presidential election. I’ve seen no mention of it here, and virtually none in the mainstream media.
Both Georgia and Romania have been wracked by protests and litigation around their recent elections, where “populist” right-wing pro-Russian candidates gamed the system and cheated their way to dubious “victories,” causing their outraged citizens to rise up in mass protests. This time it’s Poland. The parallels to the perceptions of election manipulation both in Europe and the United States are striking. Even worse, the path to fairly recounting and verifying the results is blocked by highly partisan courts and officials refusing to act in a transparent and even-handed way.
To summarize the basic facts, Poland held national elections on May 18, with the two largest parties fiercely competing for the Presidency among 13 different parties’ candidates. The incumbent government of Prime Minister Donald Tusk, representing Poland’s largest pro-EU, pro-Ukraine, human-rights-favoring party, Law and Justice (PiS), ran Warsaw mayor Rafal Trzaskowski, who came in second for President in 2020’s elections. The Christian Nationalist anti-gay, anti-abortion, culturally conservative anti-Ukraine candidate, Karol Nawrocki ran nominally as “independent,” but is closely aligned to rightwing Catholic Church dominated, anti-liberalization smaller nationalist parties committed to reversing recent social progress and closer EU ties.
Although Trzaskowski got the most votes in the May 18 election, neither candidate got the required majority, requiring a runoff held June 1. The very close runoff results (50.8% vs 49.11%) seemed to indicate unexpectedly large shifts in support toward the right wing. The apparent winner was Nawrocki , who expects to be sworn in as President on August 6. Almost immediately, suspicions were aroused by the claimed result contradicting exit polls and requiring large numbers of voters who chose Traskowski in the first election to have switched their choice to Nawrocki in the runoff.
Over 7,900 election protests were filed alleging manipulation and fraud, with local investigations and partial recounts conducted. But, despite an ever-growing number of irregularities, nothing so far emerged that would conclusively change Nawrocki’s narrow victory. However, requests for full transparency, including access to ballots and other forensic evidence were denied, leaving doubts about the actual impartiality of those determinations. The body making those rulings, and blocking a full national recount, is the conservatively leaning Chamber of Extraordinary Review and Public Affairs, whose legitimacy is disputed by the current ruling majority and by Poland’s Supreme Court. Three hundred thousand Poles have signed a petition demanding a full recount, and the number of election protests is approaching 30,000. The Supreme Court must certify the official results by July 2.
The outgoing Donald Tusk government desperately wants to maintain social peace, stating that ”citizens have the right to be confident that their votes were counted accurately and fairly,” and that “no one in Poland should question the results of the presidential election.” But the Prime Minister also admits that it is not his role to decide the outcome of the electoral challenges, and begged the candidates to restrain from rampant election denialism and potential violence. Ever more strident objections continue daily, like those by prominent citizen Roman Giertych, a lawmaker for Poland’s ruling Civic Coalition, claiming on Wednesday that newly obtained recount data is proof of ballot tampering, and that the election review process as conducted so far deviates from required protocol and lacks legitimacy.
Georgia’s pro-West opposition, despite months of mass public protests, was not successful in blocking the pro-Putin party from seizing power, but continues to refuse to accept that outcome through daily mass mobilization. Romania, on the other hand, did catch the Russian election manipulation red-handed, largely through social media, tossed out the anti-EU candidate and restored faith in its democracy. How things will ultimately turn out in Poland currently does not inspire confidence that questions about the election’s legitimacy will manage to overcome the institutional obstacles preventing full investigation and disclosure.
Given the stakes in the nearby battle for Ukraine and the growing threat of confrontation between Russia and NATO, the outcome, decided by a few thousand votes, could be a major determining factor in how the rest of the 21st century plays out.
