Anyone who says they know what will happen next in the Middle East is either deluding themselves or deluding you. Take what just happened this morning: Iran delivered its (first) response to the US bombing of its nuclear infrastructure: Iran attacks U.S. military base in Qatar with missiles . An escalation, right, especially since Trump has threatened even more violence if Iran dares to hit back.
Except . . . all may not be quite as it seems: From WaPo's live coverage:
The Pentagon is not aware of any U.S. injuries or deaths resulting from Iran’s attack on Al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar, U.S. defense officials said, acknowledging the strike involved short-range and medium-range ballistic missiles.
Qatar’s Defense Ministry said in a statement that Qatari air defenses had intercepted them and affirmed the incident ended with no deaths or injuries. [posted at 10:58 Pacific time]
Another story says Iran also hit one of our bases in Iraq, but Iran is not claiming that one, not exactly:
The Ain al-Assad base housing U.S. troops in western Iraq was also targeted, an Iraqi security official who was not authorized to comment publicly told The Associated Press on condition of anonymity.
But Iran did not claim credit for that attack, which could have been carried out by militias.
It was not immediately clear if there was damage to the Iraq base or any injuries.
Given that Iran’s missile barrages on Israel in the past week have inflicted a lot of damage (even with Israeli interceptions), I think it highly likely that Iran could have done the same to our Qatar base if it really wanted to.
Unlike Trump (who couldn’t negotiate his way out of a paper bag with scissors, a map, and the Secret Service to help), Iranians have been developing their bargaining skills for thousands of years. These two attacks are, as I read them, a careful calculation on Iran’s part. Their pride, not to mention the survival of the current regime, will not permit Iran to let the bombing of the nuclear sites go unanswered. But the way this attack actually left little or no damage, and (so far as we know) no casualties, suggests to me that Iran is trying to tell Trump not to push them any further. After all, Iran appears to have moved its uranium stockpile out of the way of US bombs — not at all surprising given that Trump telegraphed his punch days in advance. Nor does Iran really want a war with the US (even though it routinely calls us “the Great Satan”) because the leaders know that they would lose, even if the US also loses just as we did in Iraq.
So I read the current Iranian action as sending this message: “OK, you bloodied us, but you didn’t really hurt us that much because we still have all our uranium. We hit your base in Qatar, but just a little bit to show what we could really do if you make us do it. So don’t do it any more and everyone’s pride will be satisfied.”
Trump, however, is not likely to be easily (or ever) satisfied. I will not predict what he will do (most likely, he can’t either). But I have my doubts that he is willing, capable, or even interested in the subtle message Iran appears to be sending him.
-------------------------------— Update 1200 PM Pacific -------------------------------—
After I posted this diary, I saw this live update in the New York Times:
Three Iranian officials familiar with the plans said that Iran gave advanced notice that attacks were coming, as a way to minimize casualties. The officials said Iran symbolically needed to strike back at the U.S. but at the same time carry it out in a way that allowed all sides an exit ramp; they described it as a similar strategy to 2020 when Iran gave Iraq heads up before firing ballistic missiles at an American base in Iraq following the assassination of its top general.
So it looks like I called it right [pauses to polish fingernails on chest], but Trump remains the unknown factor. As of 11:30 this morning Pacific time, Trump’s only public comment has been an attack on . . . wait for it . . . the media:
We’ve been waiting to hear from President Trump about Iran’s attack on the US base in Qatar, but the president’s first social media post since the strikes is a complaint about media skepticism of his statement that Iran’s nuclear sites were “totally obliterated.” Trump criticized CNN, ABC and NBC, calling them “sleazebags.”
Also, as of this update, the White House has still not briefed the “Gang of Eight” on the results of the mission, as required by law, and even though Hakim Jeffries has repeatedly demanded a meeting.
-------------------------— Update 1550 Pacific ------------------------—
Ha’aretz is reporting that Trump Says 'Complete and Total CEASEFIRE' Agreed Between Israel and Iran:
U.S. President Donald Trump announced on Monday that Iran and Israel have agreed to a ceasefire that will go into effect at 7 A.M. Israel time.
According to Trump, Iran will begin the ceasefire and Israel will resume 12 hours later, with the war being considered over by midnight.
That’s a little odd; ceasefires are supposed to be simultaneous. Also:
There has been no official response from Israel or Iran.
--------------------— Update 1625 Pacific ----------------------------—
La Republica reported about 15 minutes ago that Iran has accepted the ceasefire. No word from Israel yet.
(1720) Chris Hayes is saying there are (unconfirmed) reports that Iran has agreed to the ceasefire; sill no word from Israel.
------------------------— Update 1830 Pacific ----------------------------—
According to CNN’s live link, at 1820 Pacific time, “Iranian foreign minister says there's currently no agreement on a ceasefire with Israel”. Five minutes later, “Iran's foreign minister hints that hostilities may have ended.”
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi thanked Iran’s armed forces and said military operations against Israel “continued until the very last minute,” hinting that hostilities may have ended.
“The military operations of our powerful Armed Forces to punish Israel for its aggression continued until the very last minute, at 4 a.m.” Araghchi said in a post on X.
Earlier, Araghchi had said Iran would halt its military response if Israel stopped its strikes on Iran by 4 a.m. local time in Tehran, which is 30 minutes ahead of Israel. Araghchi’s latest post came just after 4 a.m. in Israel.
Ha’aretz agrees: Hinting at Start of Cease-fire, Iranian FM Thanks Armed Forces: We Punished Israel Until the Very Last Minute.
Earlier, The Jerusalem Post reported that Iranian official tells CNN Tehran never received ceasefire proposal:
An Iranian official claimed that Tehran never received a ceasefire proposal from the United States and saw no reason to end the war with Israel and the United States, the official told CNN on Monday night.
The official claimed that Tehran would continue the war and that remarks from Israeli and US leaders would be viewed as a "deception" to justify continued attacks on Iran.
While there is still no official word from Israel that I can find, the NYT live feed reports as of 1830 Pacific that
Israeli officials had already suggested that the fighting might wind down soon. On Sunday night, the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, said Israel was “very, very close” to achieving its aims in the war against Iran, although he did not provide a timetable for an end to the fighting.
I’m starting to feel like the ball in a ping-pong match.
