On July 5, Elon Musk made good on his threat and officially declared the formation of a new political party — the America Party. www.politico.com/… His stated aim: to challenge the long-standing dominance of both the Republican and Democratic parties.
Plenty of ink will be spilled in the coming days on this. But the implications — if this turns out to be “real” and not just an ego-driven media stunt — could be far reaching,
Third parties in modern U.S. history have had middling results.
In 1968, George Wallace ran as a third-party candidate for President under the American Independent Party and won 13.5% of the national vote, while carrying five southern states (his party did not significantly compete for Congressional seats). The electoral votes won by Wallace were not enough to change the outcome in an election won by Republican Nixon with 301 electoral votes to Democrat Humphrey’s 191 electoral votes.
In 1992, we had the Presidential run of Ross Perot. Perot’s net worth at the time was around $3 billion. He spent approximately $63 million of his own money on his campaign, an enormous sum at the time for a self-funded candidate (Perot did not accept public campaign financing). Perot’s Reform Party of the USA got on the ballot in all 50 states but did not run candidates for Congress. Perot won 18.9% of the national vote and may have shifted four states from Bush to Clinton. Again, not enough to affect an outcome where Clinton won 370 electoral votes to Bush’s 168 electoral votes. [EDIT: As commenters below have pointed out, it is a myth that Clinton would not have beaten Bush but for Perot’s presence in the race — Clinton would have beaten Bush decisively, with or without Perot being in the race].
In 2000, Ralph Nader ran for President as the Green Party candidate. He won only 2.74% of the national vote and no states. But many contend his tally in Florida enabled Republican George Bush to carry that state against Democrat Al Gore by 537 votes (although this conclusion remains heavily disputed to this day).
As of today, Musk’s net worth stands at $315 billion — a hundred times more than Perot. So, he can spend proportionately vaster sums on his party candidates in 2026 and beyond. The Citizens United case — decided in 2010 — also hadn’t been around when Perot and the others ran. So, Musk’s candidates can avail themselves of a lot of so-called “dark money.”
Musk comes with other advantages than wealth. He is arguably more well-known globally than Wallace, Perot and Nader were. He controls his own social media empire. And his admirers have a cult-like loyalty approaching that of MAGA for Trump.
Some things have changed since Wallace, Perot and Nader ran. Ballot access laws have tightened, state filing laws have become more complex, and the traditional parties are quick to litigate against newcomers perceived as threats.
Musk may not only run Congressional candidates in 2026, but a Presidential candidate in 2028 (although it can’t be himself since he was born in South Africa).
Several short-term takeaways:
- this could kick off a wide-spread civil war within the GOP and also to some degree within MAGA. Trump is currently politically more powerful than Musk, by far, but Musk has enough “juice” (on the right) and money to at least put up a fight. And as time goes by, Trump should become weaker politically, both from the impacts of his disastrous “Big Beautiful Bill” and his inevitable transformation into a lame duck who cannot run again;
- Trump and his allies may immediately start targeting not only Musk’s DOGE acolytes left behind across the US government, but also any Trump appointees deemed “tainted” by association with Musk;
- Trump will also likely make good on his threats to go after Musk’s vast government contracts, although this will be tough since Musk has embedded himself deeply in some public-private partnerships like Starlink and Space X;
- possibly, Trump may go after Musk’s citizenship;
- Musk, for his part, has major cards to play in threatening to split both the 2026 Congressional midterm votes (particularly through “spoiler” candidates in key districts), as well as running a “cat’s paw” candidate for President in 2028. If this new party is a real long-term project, Musk could also run candidates at the state and local level;
- and of course Musk can do reputational damage to Trump by linking him to the Epstein child exploitation cases, calling for Trump to again be impeached, and floating various conspiracy theories;
- there have been rumors of discussions behind the scenes with some Republicans and Democrats to help Musk form this new America Party. It remains to be seen who these may be, but it is likely it will be a collection of opportunists, washouts and retreads. Musk is unlikely to allow his new creation to become a vehicle for the ego of anyone but himself.
Caveat: I presume Musk’s new party will draw more from the right than the left. I may not have been able to say this two years ago.
Cautionary note: Musk’s announcement initially inspires joy in our hearts. Get the popcorn! The matinee is showing Frankenstein versus Dracula! However, there is a non-trivial possibility that Musk’s announcement is simply a bargaining chip against Comrade Krasnov. Something to make Trump back off.
I think this unlikely. The worsening relationship between these two men is not subject to the usual calculations of logic. We are dealing with the most massive, unleashed, and untreated (not counting Ketamine) egos on the planet. Men who do not see themselves as having rivals, only subjects and minions.
There can be only one!
