The Texas Democrats who left the state to block an aggressive GOP redistricting effort ended their two-week walkout Monday, clearing the way for Republicans to pass a congressional map ordered by President Donald Trump.
The return means the Texas House will finally have a quorum when it gavels in at 1 PM ET, something it hasn’t achieved for weeks.
State House Minority Leader Gene Wu, who chairs the Texas House Democratic Caucus, described the walkout as symbolic.
“We killed the corrupt special session, withstood unprecedented surveillance and intimidation, and rallied Democrats nationwide to join this existential fight for fair representation—reshaping the entire 2026 landscape,” Wu said in a statement. “We’re returning to Texas more dangerous to Republicans’ plans than when we left. Our return allows us to build the legal record necessary to defeat this racist map in court, take our message to communities across the state and country, and inspire legislators across the country how to fight these undemocratic redistricting schemes in their own statehouses.”
Empty chairs belonging to House Democrats remain empty during a session convocation in the Texas Capitol on Aug. 5.
Still, not all Democrats came back. Just as in 2021, when lawmakers walked out to block a voter-suppression bill, a few are refusing to come back on principle. One state House member told The New York Times that the party’s strength lies in resistance, not helping Republicans secure a quorum for a gerrymandered map.
With most Democrats back in Austin, Republicans are ready to push their plan through the House this week. Senate Republicans approved their version last Tuesday, with nine Democrats staging a walkout before the vote.
The truth is, the walkout would never alter the fundamental political dynamics. Texas Republicans hold the power, and Democrats lack the numbers to stop them.
Once the new map is enacted into law, as expected, Democrats plan to challenge it in the courts. The stakes are high: The GOP’s proposed map redraws five Democratic-held districts to be more Republican-leaning ahead of the 2026 midterms, giving Trump’s party a chance to shore up its House majority in what is expected to be a harsh election year for them. Texas Gov. Greg Abbott has even threatened to redraw more districts as retaliation for Democrats, though it’s uncertain if he will follow through.
But whether Republicans can actually net five new seats remains uncertain.
The new lines target five Democratic-leaning districts—the 9th, 28th, 32nd, 34th, and 35th—and redraw them into more Republican-friendly territory. On paper, Trump would have carried all five in 2024 by 10 percentage points or more, which should make them easy wins for Republicans in 2026.
In practice, it’s more complicated.
Election analysts at the Silver Bulletin note that three of these districts—the 9th, 32nd, and 35th—were reshaped to include suburban areas that strongly supported Trump in 2024. Under these new boundaries, Trump would have won by an average of 14 points, and he also carried all three in 2020. These are tough odds for Democrats, and they’re the most likely to flip next cycle.
The other two, the 28th and 34th, are closer cases. Both are in South Texas, where Trump outperformed in 2024 even with the old lines. Republicans redrew them to be more favorable, but former President Joe Biden carried both in the 2020 election.
A woman holds a sign during a rally to protest against redistricting hearings at the Texas Capitol on July 24.
This makes them less secure for a quick flip, especially in a potentially challenging national environment for the GOP.
In other words, Republicans may not sweep as easily as they hope.
The 28th and 34th districts might turn red on their own in 2028 if Hispanic voters continue to shift right, but flipping them in 2026 will be more challenging. After all, gerrymandering can do only so much.
Meanwhile, California is preparing to fight back. Democrats in the state are expected to advance a plan to redraw their map to offset the GOP’s power grab in Texas. California Gov. Gavin Newsom is leading this effort, with a leaked Democratic map eliminating up to five Republican-held seats.
To do this, Democrats aim to temporarily suspend California’s independent redistricting commission via a ballot measure and hand control back to the legislature.
Newsom emphasized the importance: Democrats, he said, must fight Trump’s mid-decade gerrymander with their own version.
“If California, one of the most un-Trumped states in America, is not successful, [it’s] at our peril. We may not get this back,” Newsom told Meidas Touch. “[Trump] is rigging this next midterm election before one vote is cast. He tried to wreck our democracy after the last vote was cast the last time. Now he’s doing it in plain sight, and we have to have our sights focused—laser-focused—on winning, fighting fire with fire.”
What began as a Texas standstill has now become a national contest over redistricting. California is planning a Democratic counter-map. Republican-led states, such as Florida, Indiana, Missouri, and Ohio, are considering their own plans.
Both sides are openly strategizing to lock in power before 2026, setting up a fierce tit-for-tat for control of the House. Maybe Republicans will prevail. But Democrats aren’t giving up.
