The Russian invasion of Ukraine has now stretched well into its 4th year. The geopolitical map of Europe has changed drastically since the conflict began in February, 2022. Back then, there was still an uneasy peace between the capitals of Europe with Moscow. While the illegal invasion and annexation of Crimea along with the inconclusive overthrow of the Donbass was condemned by the Western world, it seemed some post-bellum equilibrium was established. But that was not how it was interpreted by Putin and Moscow.
Putin saw the massive popularity bump he and his regime got for their audacious invasion of their neighbor which gave his regime a life extension after the commodities boom of the 2000s ran out. So, in 2021 after COVID, he decided to cash in all his chips and go for broke to cement his regimes legacy permanently. With lofty (and faulty) assessments from the FSB giving credence that the historically low popularity of the Zelensky government would allow Ukraine to fall into his hands like a ripe fruit, Putin went all in with a full scale invasion.
It’s interesting that the GRU (Russian Military Intelligence) actually had a more realistic assessment of an invasion of Ukraine stating that while Ukraine was weaker, the resistance to an invasion would be massive and Russia would be in for a long and inconclusive conflict. This was supported by the fact that the Ukrainian military of 2022 was very different than the one from 2014 with a number of reforms implemented and supported by some western military hardware.
Now, we’re in 2025 and the situation has evolved again. Europe has finally overcome it’s historic lethargy towards re-armament after the Cold War and is now starting to invest a significant portion of it’s budget into defense. Poland in particular has been keen to significantly increase and upgrade its military with large purchases of advanced weaponry such as the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter and AH-64 attack helicopters. This is understandable given Poland's tragic 20th century history and its vow never to repeat it.
The rest of Europe is following suit with the countries closest to Russia ramping up quickly while those farther away slowly increasing as well. Meanwhile, the war in Ukraine continues with shifting political alliances especially between Ukraine and the United States. President Trump’s mercurial position on both Ukraine and Europe has made it clear that he’s an unreliable partner at best for European security. Thus, Europe is realizing that it’s now on its own and cannot backstop their defense with the United States military at least while the Trump administration is in office.
This leads to two major geo-political scenarios. First, the longer that Russia is stuck in Ukraine the more time it allows for Europe and NATO to rearm. Second, with Europe re-arming without the expectation that the United States will help them in their defense, the more Europe will de-couple it’s geo-political position from Washington and become a more independent actor.
This should be a major concern for Russia as it has always operated under the assumption that Europe is America’s subordinate and as long as Russia can steer the US it can manipulate Europe. A truly independent Europe without Washington to constrain it is a significant threat to Russia. A fundamental misunderstanding within the Kremlin was that NATO served dual purposes. While it was expressly made to protect the democratic European counties from Soviet expansionism, it was also made to prevent another European arms race that would threaten to spill over across the continent as it did in both World Wars by keeping European defense within a comprehensive structure.
Given these geopolitical shifts, the Russian position is gradually deteriorating. Increasing reliance with China threatening to make Russia a client state of Xi Jingping, the rearmament of Europe, the increasing cost of the Ukrainian conflict and growing internal fissures within the Russian political hierarchy means Putin does not have the infinite amount of time or manpower that he wishes to project. In fact, the clock for Russia is creeping towards midnight.
