California Gov. Gavin Newsom took a big gamble when he threw his weight behind Proposition 50—the ballot measure to pause California’s independent redistricting commission and let lawmakers redraw the state’s congressional maps—and it just might pay off.
The measure’s aim is simple: Win back up to five House seats and counter Texas Republicans’ new gerrymander as the country heads into the 2026 midterm elections.
The fight over maps didn’t stop in Texas. After President Donald Trump kicked off a national push to redraw districts, other GOP-led states followed. Republicans in Florida and Indiana are openly weighing mid-decade remaps—an unusual move—and Missouri’s legislature just passed a plan turning a Democratic seat red. To counter this power grab, Democratic governors in Illinois, Maryland, and New York have floated doing the same.
But Republicans have more opportunities than Democrats to gerrymander. In most blue states, legal and constitutional barriers make mid-decade map changes tough, thanks to independent commissions or prior court rulings.
That’s why Newsom’s move was such a high-risk play. California voters created the commission in 2010, and it remains popular. Newsom and national Democrats argued that letting Republicans redraw maps uncontested would be unilateral disarmament—if the GOP tilts the field, Democrats say they can’t just play fair.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom addresses reporters after signing a package of measures to redraw the state's congressional districts and put new maps before voters in a special election, in Sacramento, California, on Aug. 21.
With less than two months until Election Day, that gamble looks like it’s paying off. One new poll shows most state voters supporting Prop 50, and Democrats are dominating the money race.
So far, more than $35 million has been spent on TV and digital ads in California, according to Punchbowl News—and this is only the first wave. About $20.5 million has gone to the “yes” campaign, compared with $14.8 million from the “no” side. That cash edge could prove decisive in the final stretch.
Supporters are making this fight about more than maps. They’ve turned Prop 50 into a referendum on Trump. Ads from Newsom’s team urge voters to “stand up to Trump.” Some feature former President Barack Obama, others are in Spanish with Sen. Alex Padilla, and plenty put Newsom himself front and center.
“We can’t stand back and watch this democracy disappear district by district all across this country,” Newsom says in one ad. “On Nov. 4, you have the power to stand up to Trump.”
Republicans are pitching a different message, defending the commission as a model of good governance and trying to keep the fight local. One ad warns that Prop 50 is “a direct attack on democracy, a dangerous idea that tears away the power of choice.”
So far, voters don’t seem persuaded. An Emerson College survey finds that 51% of California voters plan to vote for Prop 50, compared with 34% who plan to vote against it. Fifteen percent are undecided. Support jumps to 55% among those very likely to vote in November.
Even high-profile opposition hasn’t moved the numbers. Former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, an anti-Trump Republican, has campaigned against Prop 50, warning it undermines fair maps. But 66% of California voters tell Emerson that Schwarzenegger’s stance makes no difference to them. And 22% say it makes them more likely to back Prop 50, while just 12% say it makes them less likely.
Newsom’s own numbers are also on the rise. Emerson has his job approval at 46%, up 2 percentage points from last month, with 40% disapproval. Trump, by comparison, sits at 35% approval among Californian voters, while 57% disapprove. Support for Prop 50 closely tracks with views of Newsom: 74% of “yes” voters approve of him, while 82% of “no” voters disapprove.
The stakes are massive. A win in California could help Democrats undo much of the GOP’s growing edge in the House. A loss would make Republicans’ path to holding control after 2026 easier.
For now, momentum is on Newsom’s side. Voters seem ready to fight fire with fire—and give Democrats the chance to redraw the map.
