President Donald Trump is dead serious about rigging maps ahead of the midterms—so serious he’s threatening to back primary challengers against governors who won’t go along with it.
According to Politico, Trump’s team is already eyeing New Hampshire Gov. Kelly Ayotte, who flatly rejected calls to redraw congressional lines for partisan gain.
“The timing is off for this, because we are literally in the middle of the census period,” she told WMUR in August. “And when I talk to people in New Hampshire ... it’s not on the top of their priority list.”
“REDistricting” by Tim Campbell
Ayotte has long been one of the few Republicans willing to show an independent streak, and Trump’s interest in punishing her underscores just how little tolerance he has for dissent inside the party. In today’s GOP, even questioning the timing of his demands can invite retaliation.
Such defiance is becoming increasingly risky. Trump’s allies are making clear that Republicans who block the redistricting push could pay a price.
“The base is on to this. If you are a Republican perceived to be in the way of Republicans, there could very well be consequences,” one national Republican official told Politico.
It’s not just Ayotte in Trump’s crosshairs. Republicans in Indiana who don’t support a new map may also face retaliation, even as GOP Gov. Mike Braun pushes the effort.
Adam Kincaid, head of the National Republican Redistricting Trust, summed up the pressure campaign.
“The base is saying, ‘hey, you should be doing this,’ and politicians are responding in kind,” he told Politico. “It’s kind of politics 101.”
The White House’s hardball tactics dovetail with outside pressure from groups like Club for Growth Action. The conservative super PAC just launched a $1 million ad campaign aimed at pushing Republicans in battleground states to get on board.
Their latest target is North Carolina, where Senate Leader Phil Berger has hinted at redrawing maps, pointing to “what’s going on in California” as justification. He’s denied reports that he’s doing it to score a Trump endorsement in his tough primary, but the timing is hard to ignore.
The PAC has already rolled out ads in Indiana, Kansas, and Missouri, with Florida and Kentucky up next. Taken together, Trump’s demands and the outside spending blitz reveal just how desperate Republicans are to cling to their razor-thin majority in the House.
The stakes are high. Democrats only need to flip three seats next year to retake control. Trump’s gambit could, in theory, net Republicans up to 18 seats across nine states.
Gov. Gavin Newsom addresses reporters after signing a package of measures to redraw the state's Congressional districts and put new maps before voters in a special election, in Sacramento on Aug. 21.
However, Democrats have filed legal challenges in every state where maps have been redrawn, and California could gain as many as five new seats for Democrats if voters approve Gov. Gavin Newsom’s maps in November.
Even inside the GOP, there are quiet concerns about pushing too far. Some Republicans fear the backlash from independents isn’t worth the potential gain of new seats. A YouGov poll in August found a majority of independents opposed Texas’ redrawn congressional districts, a warning sign that aggressive map-rigging could backfire in swing areas. And if those voters revolt, the party’s short-term wins could vanish in November.
Still, Trump’s push has become a loyalty test, another line-in-the-sand moment for Republicans who want to stay in his good graces. Some states may not even be able to deliver: places like Nebraska face structural and political hurdles that make redrawing maps much harder.
But the White House isn’t letting up. The message is clear—get in line, or face Trump’s wrath.
Another test. Another gamble. And this one could just as easily blow up in his face.
