Policing doesn’t mean you take over the country, but at various moments in US history that term gains flexibility.
You Break It, You Bought It, as Trump threw a hot potato at Little Marco in the presser, admitting that the “gang of eight” was not informed.
Will this be a new opportunity for Erik Prince, the once and future Viceroy of Afghanistan.
Venezuela is focusing on insurgency. They bought 100k AK103 from RU. They gave most to civic and political allies. They have a factory making rifles and ammo (72m rds/yr). They handed out over 200k rifles, some estimates say 500k. US wins but death toll will be high. For what?
says the owner of a legal M-60 machine gun
GEMINI:
As of January 3, 2026, the prospects for a civil war in Venezuela have reached a critical and highly volatile stage following a massive escalation in U.S. military involvement.1 The risk of a prolonged internal conflict is considered high due to the sudden "decapitation" of the previous government leadership.2
Current Conflict Status
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The Capture of Maduro: Early today, U.S. forces conducted large-scale strikes across Venezuela, including targets in Caracas. President Donald Trump announced that Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, were captured by elite units and flown out of the country to face criminal charges in New York.
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Power Vacuum: While the U.S. has stated it will run the country temporarily until a transition occurs, Vice President Delcy Rodríguez has denounced the move as "imperial aggression," and the Venezuelan military still maintains control of major installations like the Miraflores Palace.
Prospects for Civil War
Experts identify three primary factors that could trigger a full-scale civil war in the coming weeks:3
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Armed Militia Resistance: The Bolivarian Militia, which claims millions of members, was mobilized in late 2025. These pro-government groups, along with "colectivos" (armed civilian wings), may launch a nationwide insurgency similar to the model seen in Iraq if they feel excluded from the new order.
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Military Fragmentation: The risk of civil war hinges on whether the Venezuelan armed forces remain united or split into factions.4 There is concern that divided loyalties within the military leadership could lead to direct clashes between rival units vying for control.5
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International Proxy Dynamics: While Russia, Cuba, and Iran have expressed outrage, the potential for these nations to provide asymmetric support to anti-U.S. forces remains a significant destabilizing factor that could prolong internal fighting.
Key Indicators to Watch
| Factor |
Current Outlook |
| U.S. Presence |
Trump has signaled a strong involvement in the oil industry, which may fuel nationalist resentment and resistance. |
| Amnesty Talks |
Opposition figures like Edmundo González have proposed amnesty for military leaders to prevent a "fight to the end." |
| Regional Response |
Neighbors like Colombia and Brazil are on high alert for a fresh surge in refugees and potential spillover of violence. |
Marjorie Taylor Greene on the capture of Maduro:
“If prosecuting narco terrorists is a high priority then why did President Trump pardon the former Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernandez who was convicted and sentenced for 45 years for trafficking hundreds of tons of cocaine
