Tuesday night brought fresh evidence that a blue wave is building for the 2026 midterm elections, after Democrats won a pair of special elections for vacant state legislative seats in Virginia. In each election, Democrats improved on the margins won by former Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election.
Democrat Mike Jones won the state Senate seat vacated by Lt. Gov.-elect Ghazala Hashmi. Jones defeated Republican John Thomas, 70% to 30%, marking an 8-percentage-point improvement on Harris’ performance in 2024, according to VoteHub.
Democrats also notched an 8-point overperformance in a Richmond-based House of Delegates district, where Democrat Charlie Schmidt defeated Republican Richard Stonage Jr. 79% to 20%, according to VoteHub.
Consistently overperforming in special elections is a good sign that a party is set to do well in the next general election.
In special elections during the 2025-26 cycle, Democrats overperformed Harris' margin by an average of 13.3%, according to data collected by The Downballot. That's higher than the 10.6% average overperformance Democrats notched ahead of the 2018 midterms, when the party went on to easily retake control of the House.
Democrats' strong performances in special elections have spooked Republicans, who are sounding alarm bells about the 2026 midterms. In fact, the chair of the Republican National Committee has publicly said his party will likely lose.
The Virginia State Capitol, shown in 2024.
As such, an astounding number of GOP lawmakers have decided to retire or run for other offices, a sign that Republicans either expect to lose their congressional seats or have no desire to be in the minority when the new Congress is sworn in next January.
Even President Donald Trump is worried, complaining in a rambling and incoherent speech to House Republicans on Tuesday that he and his party's poll numbers are in the toilet.
"I wish you could explain to me what the hell’s going on with the mind of the public, because we have the right policy,” Trump said in a speech at a House GOP retreat.
It’s unclear what he means by “right policy,” though. Republicans had been begging Trump to focus his message on affordability in order to stave off defeat. Instead, Trump is bombing Venezuela and threatening to invade other allied nations to satisfy his egomaniacal and imperialistic impulses.
With that message, it’s no wonder Republicans are doing badly in special elections.
