A new poll from the Democratic-aligned Senate Majority PAC shows strong public support for reforming Immigration and Customs Enforcement, including requiring search warrants and restricting the use of force.
That’s not just bad news for Republicans in the midterms. It shows Democrats have a clear public backing for a partial government shutdown on Monday over funding for the Department of Homeland Security.
According to the poll, 57% of likely midterm voters disapprove of President Donald Trump’s immigration policy—a striking shift on an issue where Republicans have historically held the advantage.
Federal immigration agents stalk down a street in Minneapolis.
“Even among the political center—voters who narrowly backed Trump in 2024—61% disapprove of Trump on immigration,” the memo notes. It also finds that “nearly one-quarter of Republicans, and more than four-in-ten non-MAGA Republicans, view ICE unfavorably.”
That’s not an outlier.
A YouGov poll from late January asked whether Democrats in Congress should hold out for cuts in DHS funding—including ICE—before agreeing to a funding bill to avert a shutdown. Forty-one percent supported Democrats holding out. Just 32% said they shouldn’t. Framed as a battle of wills, more Americans sided with the Democrats.
In a poll released Friday, Data for Progress found even stronger numbers when the issue was framed more specifically. Asked whether the Transportation Security Administration, the Coast Guard, and the Federal Emergency Management Agency should remain fully funded while ICE “should not receive funding as it currently stands,” 56% of likely voters supported that approach, with just 37% opposed. (This approach is under consideration by some Democrats.)
Notably, 40% of Republicans supported cutting off ICE funding under those terms, signaling a remarkable crack in the Republican coalition.
If a DHS shutdown kicks off on Saturday—as seems likely—the Senate Majority PAC polls finds 52% would blame Republicans, compared to just 38% who would blame Democrats. Put simply, Republicans would keep their MAGA base, but beyond that, the ground looks rough.
In the medium term, this exacerbates the already toxic environment Republicans face heading into the midterms. And in the immediate term, it gives Democrats real political space to hold firm in the funding fight ahead.
Republicans will claim Democrats are threatening national security. But the data tells a different story: Voters see ICE as a problem, not a solution, and they want change.
Turns out executing U.S. citizens on U.S. soil isn’t the path to political popularity and glory.
