Tuesday was the first day of early voting for Texas’ March 3 primary election, and Democrats turned out in droves, blowing past previous election turnouts, according to data from the state’s secretary of state.
With about two weeks of voting left to go, the gangbuster Democratic turnout on Day 1 of early voting is the first tangible sign that the party is energized about potentially flipping one of the state's U.S. Senate seats blue for the first time since 1993, more than three decades ago. Democrats are choosing between Rep. Jasmine Crockett and state Rep. James Talarico, while Republicans have a three-way contest between sitting Sen. John Cornyn, state Attorney General Ken Paxton, and Rep. Wesley Hunt.
In the heavily Democratic-leaning Travis County, home to the state capital of Austin, Day 1 turnout was up about 140% from 2020, when Democrats had a competitive presidential primary election on the ballot.
Importantly, turnout was more Democratic than it was in the past three election cycles, even though Republicans also have a competitive Senate primary this year.
In bellwether Tarrant County, home to Fort Worth, first-day turnout was also way up. But more eye-catching is that Democrats outran Republicans in turnout on Day 1 of early voting, when in past cycles it was Republicans who led turnout by wide margins.
Of course, it's still early, so it's impossible to know if overall turnout will be higher or if energized Texans are front-loading the early vote and rates will diminish as March 3 draws nearer.
Either way, polling suggests Democrats have a real chance of flipping the Senate seat, especially if Republicans oust Cornyn in their primary and replace him with scandal-plagued Paxton.
Paxton has a narrow lead in GOP primary polls—just 4 percentage points on average, according to polling analysis site FiftyPlusOne. And a January survey from Emerson College found that if Paxton were the nominee, the race would be a toss-up. The poll showed Paxton tied at 46% in a head-to-head matchup against either Democratic Senate hopeful.
Even more concerning for Republicans is that President Donald Trump’s politicized Federal Communications Commission may have thwarted their plans to face off with Crockett, whom Republicans view as the weaker Democratic nominee.
On Monday, CBS blocked its late-night host Stephen Colbert from airing an interview with Talarico, which only boosted Talarico’s profile just as voters began to make their primary choice.
A blue Texas has been a Democratic pipe dream for years. But given the heightened Democratic enthusiasm in this primary, as well as Republican primary voters' apparent preference for choosing the worst nominee, 2026 could be the year it finally happens.
