President Donald Trump will deliver his State of the Union address Tuesday night, where he's expected to bloviate and lie for a painfully long amount of time about everything from the economy and tariffs to his violent immigration enforcement and ridiculous peacemaking skills.
Pundits will breathlessly pontificate about what the speech means and how it may help Trump fix his abysmal approval rating ahead of the midterm elections.
President Donald Trump turns to then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi during his State of the Union address on Feb. 5, 2019.
But before Trump utters even a single word, we’re here to tell you that his SOTU address will not matter one single iota for the outcome of November's midterms.
Here’s why.
First, SOTU addresses are blips in time that will be forgotten by the public by the weekend—much less by the midterm elections that are more than eight months away.
The amount of news that Trump makes is dizzying—which he does to cover up his own bad behavior—so the media will be forced to pivot when he inevitably does something like start a war with Iran or impose more illegal and catastrophic tariffs.
Second, there’s tons of recent historical data to prove that SOTU addresses are meaningless.
Remember former President Joe Biden's final SOTU address, where Democrats rejoiced over his ability to get through a speech without having a senior moment? Reviews of the speech were good, and Democrats temporarily believed that Biden could survive an election cycle.
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And yet, the speech did nothing to change Biden’s approval ratings. You know why? Because the audiences for SOTU addresses are usually friendly toward the president, since their supporters are the only ones who want to sit through a boring speech.
That means that SOTU reaction polls are bunk because people who watch are primed to support Trump regardless. And data shows that SOTU speeches have no impact on Trump’s or the GOP’s electoral standing.
Just look at 2018, when Trump's SOTU address was viewed favorably by 75% of viewers. And what happened in that midterm election? Democrats rode a massive blue wave to the House majority, leading to Trump's agenda being thwarted and his ultimate impeachment—twice.
At the end of the day, Trump usually blows up whatever he says in a canned speech the second he speaks off the cuff. He is utterly incapable of staying on any message, let alone one that is popular with the public. This SOTU address will be no exception.
Former President Joe Biden delivers his State of the Union address on March 1, 2022.
Though, of course, caveats apply.
Viral moments can have a lasting impact. For example, if Trump vomits all over himself or has a rage-induced stroke as he stares down the Supreme Court justices who blocked his tariffs, that could cause him even more problems.
Also, SOTU responses from the opposing party can actually hurt the responder’s reputation. Remember now-Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s infamous water break? Virginia Gov. Abigail Spanberger should keep that in mind.
But ultimately, the most likely outcome of Trump’s SOTU address is that he will deliver nothing more than a lie-filled mess.
Hell, if I wasn't being paid to watch it for my job, there's no way I would tune in for this nonsense.
