Republicans are in for a world of hurt in November, and a new poll released Wednesday by ABC News and the Washington Post tells us why.
Democrats hold a massive edge in the enthusiasm gap—a measure of how motivated members of each major political party are—with 79% of Democrats saying they are “absolutely certain” to vote as opposed to 65% of Republicans who say the same, according to the poll.
That 14-point spread is the biggest enthusiasm gap the ABC News/Washington Post poll has recorded since 2006, which consequently was another massive Democratic wave in which Republicans lost both their House and Senate majorities
The same poll showed that Democrats have a massive advantage in the generic ballot—which asks respondents which party they want to see control Congress—among voters who say they are "absolutely certain" to vote. Among those voters, Democrats hold an 11-point lead—a number that would swamp the GOP in not only the House but the Senate, too.
In fact, special elections that have taken place since Trump reentered office show that Democrats are far more enthused than Republicans heading into the midterms.
Democrats have overperformed their 2024 margins by an average of 13.1 points in elections held since Trump took office, according to data from the Downballot. That's even higher than the 10.6% overperformances Democrats had in 2017 and 2018, according to the Downballot, before Trump's first midterm election when Democrats won control of the House in a landslide.
Trump exits the House Chamber after delivering the State of the Union address to a joint session of Congress in the House chamber in Washington, on Feb. 24.
Indeed, on Tuesday night—as Trump droned on in his dark and lie-filled State of the Union address—Democrats overperformed in two Pennsylvania state legislative contests by 34 points and 17 points, respectively, the Downballot reported.
What's more, other polling shows that Republicans are growing disillusioned with Trump.
A CNN poll released ahead of Trump's speech found that Trump's approval has fallen by 8 points among Republicans since Inauguration Day.
And one pollster found that in a recent survey, 6% of people who voted for Trump in 2024 are now lying and saying they either didn’t vote or voted for then-Vice President Kamala Harris, a sign that even his own voters are turning on him.
“The evidence suggests that unhappiness with Trump’s performance in office is the reason these voters don’t admit to having voted for him any longer,” Lakshya Jain wrote in a post for the Argument.
What’s more, Trump's midterm travel thus far is taking him to red states like Iowa and Texas, which shows his team is clearly scared about heavily Republican areas that Trump comfortably won a little more than a year ago.
Ultimately, Republicans are in deep trouble this fall. And nothing Trump is doing right now will change that.
