Regardless of who wins the Democratic Senate Primary race tomorrow in Texas, the early vote numbers auger favorably for a Democratic victory in November. From the Austin American-Statesman:
More than 1.5 million Democrats voted early in the 2026 primaries, half a million more than cast ballots during the entirety of the party's midterm primaries four years ago, according to numbers crunched by a national data firm.
Republicans also cast significantly more early votes as they did in 2022, but not by the margins on the Democratic side, which saw record turnout for a midterm primary during the early voting period, which ended Friday.
That's according to VoteHub, a non-partisan research organization that analyzes turnout and was showing more up-to-date figures than the Texas Secretary of State's Office on Monday.
...
Both Democrats are seeing turnout surging on their home turf. In Dallas and Tarrant counties, considered Crockett strongholds, Democratic turnout was up by about 325% from 2022. The combined turnout in for Travis, Williamson and Hays counties, where Talarico is best known, was up about 250%.
The candidates were planning to spend their final day of the primary campaign in Houston, Texas' largest city that comprises about half of the total population of Harris County. There, Democratic early voting was up around 225%.
Statewide Republican early voting turnout approached 1.3 million, according to VoteHub. That's 125% higher than in 2022, but short of Democrats' 240% increase.
And here are the actual early vote numbers compiled by VoteHub:
Republican: 1,279,805 BALLOTS CAST — 124.9% OF 2022 FINAL
| Early |
1,236,832 |
- |
- |
| Mail |
42,973 |
- |
- |
| Total |
1,279,805 |
1,025,018 |
1,025,018 |
Democratic: 1,503,212 BALLOTS CAST — 240.5% OF 2022 FINAL
| Early |
1,451,870 |
- |
- |
| Mail |
51,342 |
- |
- |
| Total |
1,503,212 |
625,152 |
625,152 |
Even more interesting, based on the early voting trends, VoteHub is forecasting a total of 2.7 million votes in the Dem Primary versus 2.4 million in the Rep Primary — a 300,000-vote advantage compared to a nearly 900,000 deficit in the 2022 statewide primaries. Regardless of whether Talarico or Crockett comes out on top tomorrow, the prospects for our flipping the Texas senate seat in November actually look fairly doable at this point.
And before anyone suggests the Democratic surge is due primarily to Republican voters crossing over to supposedly vote for Crockett (as the perceived weaker candidate in November?), the TEC Show has some analysis on that point:
