Stop Comparing Iran to Iraq

1/ Iran is not Iraq.

Iran is Persia, heir to the Achaemenid Empire, founded by Cyrus the Great in the 6th century BCE.

That is a national identity older than most of Western Civilization. Identity at that depth behaves differently under pressure. A civilization this old does not fracture on command.

2/ Iraq’s modern borders were drawn after World War I from former Ottoman provinces.

Iran has had continuous cultural and political identity for over 2,500 years. Language. Literature. Imperial memory. Revolution. War. Those aren’t interchangeable histories.

3/ Iran’s population: ~85 million. It has mountainous terrain built for defense, missile and drone programs, and regional proxy networks. It has survived four decades of sanctions-driven adaptation.

This is not a short campaign scenario.

4/ Yes, many Iranians want freedom from theocratic rule and corruption.

The 2022–2023 protests after Mahsa Amini’s death were widespread and courageous. The state’s crackdown killed hundreds according to human rights groups, with thousands arrested.

Internal dissent is real. So is the regime’s capacity for repression and reprisal. This will not stay constrained to Iranian soil. It’s reasonable to fear attacks on our soil. Iran has a history of asymmetric warfare through proxy terrorism.

5/ External military attack does not automatically “liberate” a society like this. Historically, it often consolidates hardliners and reframes internal dissent as foreign threat.

6/ You don’t have to like the regime to understand the scale of the problem. Comparing this to 2003 Iraq is ludicrous. It is much more dangerous than that, and every administration prior to this one, both Democratic and Republican, has understood that.

This is unlikely to end quickly.