Today is (Primary) Election Day is Texas and North Carolina, two states where Hope Springs from Field PAC volunteers have been knocking on doors for years.
Democrats see opportunity in Texas and North Carolina. The GOP’s plan to flip some seats depends on keeping Trump’s 2024 wins. Other Republican candidates may struggle to duplicate those results.
[...]
A sharp uptick in turnout during early voting has bolstered the belief that the party’s voters are motivated to fight back against Trump.
North Carolina reported 9.2 percent turnout before Election Day, the most midterm primary voters in history, according to local news outlets.
And about 1.35 million people in Texas — or 7.2 percent of the state’s electorate — had voted in the state’s Democratic primary through Feb. 27. By comparison, around 1 million voters — or 6.2 percent of the electorate — had cast their ballots statewide around the same time in the 2020 Democratic presidential primary election.
As you might guess, our Hope Springs from Field PAC volunteers in Texas have definite opinions about politics. Some pretty strong ones, i might add. When i visited with our volunteers, i got an earful from them about today’s primary (even though it was more than two months away). And i came away with the impression that they were pretty divided about who they wanted to win today.
Blue = March 7th kickoffs Dark Blue = Second Wave
Bl Green = Third Wave Green (Maine) = Summer St
Some of our supporters, even a former president, wondered who had the most support, so we did the most Hope Springs thing you would think — we asked them. Now we’ve had about 20,000 Texans come out to knock on doors in Texas.
Our email list for Texas now is at 23,283 — which is how many we emailed these questions to.
It is possible, depending on Election Day turnout, that the state will eclipse a record for Democratic primary voting that it set during the 2008 presidential race between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, experts said, though there were significantly fewer registered voters then.
More than 2.8 million Texas voters cast ballots in the 2008 Democratic primary. Texas has open primaries, meaning that voters can choose which party’s primary to participate in.
Our cut-off date for responses was February 18th, but we got almost 200 responses after that date, which are included here. One reason for that — not that it has any bearing on anything — was that the Late Show put the James Talarico interview up on YouTube on February 17, 2026. So most of our responses were before that. But i do wonder what difference it would have made if we had sent it out later.
As i had indicated, i made 8 stops for meetings with our Texas volunteers in late December and the start of the new year. We had a gathering of about 15 volunteers one night and another with about 100, so it really was quite varied.
8,117 volunteers responded to this question: Who are you supporting in the March 3rd Democratic Senate primary? 43% of respondents said James Talarico, 38% of them said they supported Jasmine Crockett.
Of course, this wasn’t the only thing we asked. In the same email, i asked:
- Have you made a donation to either candidate in the Senate primary?
- Have you volunteered for your candidate?
- Do you plan to vote Early or on Election Day?
- Are you bilingual?
- How would you describe yourself?
24% of respondents made a donation to their preferred candidate. 11% have volunteered for one of them. 38% planned to vote early, 47% planned to vote on Election Day.
Hope Springs from Field PAC starts knocking on doors this Saturday. We will continue to target Democrats and unaffiliated voters with our systematic approach that reminds them not only that Democrats care, but that Democrats are determined to deliver the best, most affordable government possible to all Americans. The voters we talk to continue to tell us they come away more invested in governance and feel more favorably towards Democrats in general because of our approach.
Obviously, we rely on grassroots support, so if you support field/grassroots organizing, voter registration (and follow-up) and our efforts to protect our voters, we would certainly appreciate your support:
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/UNRIGtheMidterms
Hope Springs from Field understands that volunteer to voter personal interactions are critical. Knocking on doors has repeatedly been found to be the most successful tactic to get voters to cast a ballot and that is the goal of what we do.
Yes, we really need your help here! Our printer’s bills are — like most things — much higher than we had anticipated for the year. Adding extra states (like California) did not help the budget!
You may remember from the earlier post, but i was asked at 6 of those about my preference in the Democratic Senate nomination. I’m not a Texas voter and i think i replied Mark Warner the first time — but this was roundly booed. But i did say that, when asked this, that it doesn’t matter who Texas Democrats chose as their nominee. The primary factor in the 2026 Senate race in Texas in on the Republican side. If Texas Republicans re-nominate Cornyn without too much damage done to the senator, it will be a lot harder to win than if they nominate Paxton (the front-runner, near as i can tell). But whoever wins the Democratic nomination will have the same chances in November — they both bring different pluses and minuses to the general election.
I was interested in our volunteer respondent’s ethnicity because there’s been a lot of interest in supporter make-up for these two candidates.
The possibility of Paxton as the nominee has given Democrats hope they could win a Senate seat in Texas for the first time in more than three decades. But racial overtones have cast a shadow over the primary as some say that Talarico, a White man, would fare better among independents and centrist Republicans — a claim that Crockett, a Black woman, characterized as a “dog whistle."
If Sen. Cornyn loses, he would be the first sitting senator from either party to lose to a primary challenger in nearly a decade.
But polling suggests Cornyn is unlikely to lose outright on Tuesday because the primary will go to a May 26 runoff if no candidate wins a majority of the vote — raising the prospect of 12 more expensive weeks of Republican infighting as Democrats likely start consolidating around a nominee.
Again, whoever wins today IS the most electable Democrat. That debate will be settled.
The excitement among the Democratic base in Texas is “palpable” said Matthew Wilson, a political science professor at Southern Methodist University. Just a month ago, a Democrat handily won a special election for a Texas state legislative district that President Trump carried by more than 17 points a year earlier.
But it’s been a fierce fight in the family. Quite frankly, as it should be. We wouldn’t fight if the seat wasn’t worth winning.
Their primary has shown a sharp divide in support from different demographics, a sign both candidates have serious work to do if they win the nomination.
One question i heard over and over in talking to our Hope Springs volunteers was, can we unite after a contentious primary? We did in 2008, when even the Illinois delegation to the Democratic National Convention was divided (between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama) before they had to vote. We have united in the face of serious division before and i trust we will again.
But he [Talarico] said that he thought Crockett could also win the general election — and promised he would campaign for her should she win the primary. A spokesperson for Crockett said the congresswoman has expressed she would “absolutely” support Talarico.
Hope Springs starts up our Issues Canvass again on Saturday. Our volunteers knock on doors of Democratic and Independent voters and use a voter-driven approach to guide them through the Issues Survey, the CSR and Incident Reports. We record questions voters raise with a Q(uestion)-slip and record other relevant observations on an Observations form. Q-slips are sent to the relevant Democrat to respond to and Observations are entered into VAN. At every door, we leave a piece of “show the flag” lit, something that tells them we were there and hopefully reinforces the Democratic brand. The lit focuses on the things voters told us were important to them last fall, aiming to appeal to every voter.
But the main focus of our canvassing is the Issues Survey, asking voters for their input and concerns. Voter responses to the questionnaire are entered into VAN and made available to all Democratic candidates who use VAN in the state after the primary.
Hope Springs has targeted states that have competitive Senate races and/or Congressional Races in 2026. There is a lot of work to be done!
We remain a seat-of-the-pants grassroots-driven operation. But Hope Springs has been called “the most comprehensive, organized grassroots voter contact project out there right now. It is truly astonishing that it is grassroots-based!”
No other Democratically-aligned org has been methodically trying to circumvent MAGA efforts to rig the House Midterm elections in 2026. And we need your help to continue. Our printer costs alone are way beyond our budgeting and we are asking for your help (if you are able).
If you are able to support Hope Springs from Field’s efforts to protect Democratic voters, especially in minority communities, expand the electorate, and believe in grassroots efforts to increase voter participation and election protection, we would appreciate your support:
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/UNRIGtheMidterms
If you would rather send a check, you can follow that link for our mailing address at the bottom of the page. Thank you for your support. This work depends upon you!
