Some very good news today out of Texas courtesy of PPP’s latest poll on behalf of the Senate Majority PAC:
Public Policy Polling’s newest Texas survey finds no meaningful difference in electability between John Cornyn and Ken Paxton. Cornyn trails James Talarico 44-43 and Paxton trails Talarico 47-45.
While Talarico is seen favorably by Texans (a +6 favorability at 41/35) Paxton and Cornyn are unpopular. Cornyn is more unpopular though. His net favorability is -28 (25/53) while Paxton’s is -24 (30/54).
Cornyn has a problem with the kind of lower propensity Trump voters who fueled the President’s huge win in Texas in 2024. 25% of Trump voters decline to vote for Cornyn in the general election, while only 19% of Trump voters decline to vote for Paxton in the general election.
Paxton has a 55/25 favorability rating with Trump voters in the general electorate, while Cornyn’s is 38/39. This suggests that anti Trump Republicans were critical to Cornyn’s first place finish in the primary on Tuesday.
These numbers suggest a close race regardless of who the GOP nominates. The Texas Senate race will be highly competitive; driven by Talarico’s broad approval, and Cornyn and Paxton’s general election liabilities.
PPP surveyed 576 Texas voters on March 4th and 5th with a margin of error of +/-4.1%. PPP’s poll of the Democratic Senate primary in Texas called James Talarico’s 6-point victory exactly correct. This survey was conducted on behalf of Senate Majority PAC.
Click here for the full results.
By the way, here are few other reasons to be very optimistic about Talarico:
Texas state Rep. James Talarico won the state’s Senate Democratic primary Tuesday as a young economic populist who made his Christian faith central to his messaging. His campaign also demonstrated that his party can still excite Latino voters without the kind of hyper-specific messaging some Democrats are inclined to think is crucial to winning ethnic minorities.
According to Politico, “In five different rural majority-Latino counties, more votes were cast in Tuesday’s Democratic primary than for Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election.” That’s a strong indicator of high interest among Latino voters, considering that primaries for statewide races are usually not high-turnout contests. And, for the first time in decades, turnout in that primary was higher than Republican primary turnout.
And Talarico dominated his race in heavily Latino areas. The Wall Street Journal, citing Associated Press data, reported, “Across counties where the population is 60% or more Latino, Talarico outperformed [opponent Rep. Jasmine Crockett] roughly 62% to 35%.” In Hidalgo County, which is 92% Latino, Talarico took 67% of the vote.
Talarico’s strength with Latino voters is eye-catching because, in a trend that goes back several election cycles, Texas Democrats have either failed to drive high turnout among Latino Democrats or lost Latino voters to the GOP.
It’s unclear how Talarico’s strength with Latino voters will translate to a general election as he faces off against either Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, the incumbent, or Cornyn’s Republican challenger, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. But the high turn-out on Tuesday suggests his campaign might offer some clues about how Democrats can mobilize and persuade Latino voters.
And he’s running one of the smartest campaigns this year:
But his win was also a victory for a proud combatant in the 2026 attention economy, reflecting the internet-first mind-set of a young candidate who leveraged an interview with Joe Rogan to catapult his candidacy even before it was official. The Colbert moment helped seal it at the end.
Mr. Talarico and his campaign signed up tens of thousands of volunteers and held 35 rallies in 26 cities across Texas. He ended with a final push on both traditional programming, such as “The View” and “Real Time with Bill Maher,” and on new ones like Jubilee, a YouTube show where he spent 90 minutes answering questions from skeptical voters.
And everywhere Mr. Talarico went he stuck to the same campaign message: unity against billionaires who want to divide people, the power of love, the willingness to embrace political difference and welcome independents and Republicans into the fold — an unlikely winning formula in an era of partisan flame throwing. At times, his campaign seemed more Sunday sermon than political barnburner.
“Jesus says something really strange, he says, ‘blessed are you who weep,’” Mr. Talarico told an audience at Texas A&M University in late February. “If your heart is breaking as you watch what’s happening to our beloved country, it means you still have a heart.”
In the days after his win, national Democrats have rallied behind Mr. Talarico. President Obama called him on Wednesday to offer congratulations, saying the young Democrat brought “energy” and “enthusiasm” into the party, according to two people briefed on the call.
But that blend of religion and Democratic politics, captured in viral internet videos, is what drew in the likes of Mr. Rogan, who was fascinated by a clip of Mr. Talarico citing the Bible to challenge a Republican effort to put the Ten Commandments in public school classrooms.
But it going to be a very expensive race to pull off the win:
Democrats have long dreamed of turning Texas blue. But the idea of flipping the state — much less retaking the Senate overall — appeared laughable last year, when the party hit new lows in its public polling and sustained sweeping losses in 2024. But a string of overperformances in off-year and special election races, combined with Trump’s own stubbornly low approval rating, have Democrats increasingly bullish about their chances.
“If I’m being super honest, Texas would not be within the reach of our boat here, as fishermen of the white whale, but for the wave moment we’re in,” said Tory Gavito, a Democratic donor who leads the progressive donor network Way To Win.
Tuesday’s results gave them another boost when Talarico, a social media star and prolific grassroots fundraiser, easily dispatched Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Texas). He now has a head start on Republicans, who after already dropping $70 million to lift Cornyn, must continue battling it out for another two and a half months through a runoff — which some are predicting could cost upwards of $100 million.
Texas Democrats see this as the moment to strike. Gavito said Democrats have built to this moment, cycle after cycle. Back in 2014, when President Barack Obama won with a young, multi-racial coalition, Democrats believed it was just a matter of time before they’d eventually flip Texas, a youthful, diverse state.
But Trump, both in 2016 and 2024, whittled down Democrats’ advantages with young, diverse voters, suggesting Texas was further out of reach than they thought. Then-Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-Texas), boosted by more than $80 million, came the closest in 2018, losing to Sen. Ted Cruz by 2.6 percentage points. When former-Rep. Colin Allred tried to oust Cruz in 2024, he lost by 8.5 points.
Gavito said it would be “important” for Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and Senate Majority PAC, Democrats’ top Senate super PAC, to invest in Texas to actually flip it because even though “Talarico has proven he can raise a bunch of non-corporate money ... leadership, like Schumer, should see that their job is to be bullish.”
She also argued against Democrats having to pick between investing in Texas or other states — “you can do both things,” she said.
Meanwhile, who’s in the mood for some GOP pants shitting?
Senate Majority Leader John Thune urged President Donald Trump on Wednesday to deliver a swift endorsement of Texas Sen. John Cornyn to potentially forestall what is widely expected to be an expensive and nasty primary runoff against Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton.
Thune told reporters he hasn’t yet spoken to Trump since the election returns from Tuesday’s primary came in but indicated he intends to personally redouble his efforts, saying Wednesday that “hopefully” the president will give Cornyn his influential nod.
“[If] Trump endorses early, it saves everybody a lot of money, and … 10 weeks of a spirited campaign on our side that keeps us from spending time focusing on the Democrats,” Thune said.
“If the president can weigh in it would be enormously helpful,” he added.
But Paxton ain’t going out like that:
Attorney General Ken Paxton said Thursday he would consider dropping out of the U.S. Senate race if Senate GOP leaders agreed to abolish the filibuster and pass a priority piece of legislation for President Donald Trump.
Paxton made the statement in a social media post that also criticized his opponent in Texas’ Senate Republican primary, incumbent John Cornyn, for being against scrapping the filibuster to pass the bill, known as the SAVE America Act. It would require people to provide proof of citizenship — such as a birth certificate or passport — when they register to vote and present photo identification at the polls, among other new election-related rules.
Cornyn is a supporter of the legislation, though he and other Senate Republicans have long bristled at talk of abolishing the filibuster, a parliamentary tool that, in practice, requires support from 60 senators in the 100-member chamber to bring a bill up for a vote. CNN reported last month that Cornyn would not say whether he backed ending the filibuster to pass the proposal, which the Senate’s 53 Republicans cannot pass amid unified opposition from Democrats.
“I repeat what I have consistently said: I support the bill and have encouraged Senate Republicans to get it done,” Cornyn said in response to Paxton’s post, without addressing his position on the filibuster.
Paxton’s offer to drop out appears designed to make a political point, more than anything else, by drawing attention to Cornyn’s reluctance to get rid of the filibuster. But it marks the first time he has raised the prospect of leaving the race amid intense lobbying by Senate GOP leaders for Trump to endorse Cornyn.
And Little Lord Fuck Face is trying to make his stupid wish come true:
Donald Trump Jr., the eldest son of President Trump, celebrated Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton’s (R) support for the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility (SAVE America) Act on Friday.
Paxton, who is challenging incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) for the GOP nod in the 2026 Texas Senate race, said he would consider “dropping out” if the upper chamber of Congress lifts the filibuster and passes the legislation.
“The Save America Act is the most important bill the U.S. Senate could ever pass, and I’m committed to helping President Trump get it done,” Paxton posted on social platform X.
“Wow!!!! Total commitment to one of the most important pieces of legislation to save Our Republic,” Trump Jr. posted online in response. “Pass the Save America Act now!!!!”
The legislation, which passed the House in February, would require U.S. voters to present proof of citizenship during registration and at the polls. It is now stalled in the Senate, where the bill has struggled to overcome the 60-vote cloture threshold.
And more of the clown car is on board with this:
Paxton’s proposal effectively turns his Senate campaign into a bargaining chip, suggesting he could step aside in the race if Republicans deliver on a centerpiece of Trump’s agenda.
The message quickly drew praise from online far-right activists.
“Ken Paxton is a patriot who is putting the country before himself,” far-right commentator Laura Loomer posted. “He’s truly the best man for the job. I hope President Trump sees his post.”
Anti-voting activist Scott Presler, one of the most prolific proponents of the bill, also celebrated Paxton’s offer.
“What a man of honor — to consider sacrificing his own political ambition to help save the country,” Presler wrote in response to Paxton’s post. “I have the utmost respect for you; you’re a hero.”
Earlier this week, Trump said he would soon endorse a candidate in the Texas runoff and urged the candidate he does not back to immediately exit the race.
Paxton quickly rejected that idea, saying he would stay in the race regardless of whom Trump supports.
And Trump himself desperately wants to pass Jim Crow 2.0:
x
The SAVE Act is Jim Crow 2.0. It would disenfranchise tens of millions of people.
If Trump is saying he won’t sign any bills until the SAVE Act is passed, then so be it: there will be total gridlock in the Senate.
Senate Democrats will not help pass the SAVE Act under any circumstances.
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— Chuck Schumer (@schumer.senate.gov) March 8, 2026 at 10:50 AM
Donald Trump threatened on Sunday to withhold his signature from all bills until Congress passes a GOP-led voting bill that implements voter restrictions ahead of the November midterms.
“I, as President, will not sign other Bills until this is passed, AND NOT THE WATERED DOWN VERSION – GO FOR THE GOLD: MUST SHOW VOTER I.D. & PROOF OF CITIZENSHIP: NO MAIL-IN BALLOTS EXCEPT FOR MILITARY – ILLNESS, DISABILITY, TRAVEL,” Trump posted on his social media platform, Truth Social.
The bill, called the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility Act, or SAVE America Act, requires individuals to show citizenship documents to register to vote and strict forms of photo ID to cast a ballot. If passed, the legislation would also administer criminal penalties for election officials who register anyone lacking the required documents.
As my colleague Ari Berman wrote in February, the bill would potentially block tens of millions of Americans from voting. Nine percent of American citizens, or approximately 21 million people, don’t have ready access to citizenship documents. The bill may impact millions of US citizens in other ways: tens of millions of women who took their partner’s last name, for example, may not have a birth certificate that matches their legal name could find it more difficult to register.
This might explain the delay:
When Trump said he would weigh in “soon,” Republicans hoped it meant he’d have backed Cornyn by now. That hasn’t happened, and attacks continue to fly, potentially weakening the eventual GOP nominee.
“We could have tens of millions of dollars being spent in a runoff in Texas and then have the added risk of whatever gets said as fodder for the Democrat marketing department,” Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., told Semafor. “Primaries get ugly. Runoffs get even uglier.”
He and other Republicans warned a Paxton victory would require so much general election money it could deprive candidates in other battlegrounds this fall.
Whatever happens with the SAVE Act, Texas Republicans will try to find a way to fuck over voters based off this shit that Democracy Docket highlighted last week:
Baffled Texans in two counties struggled to find their polling locations for primary voting Tuesday after a GOP-driven change. The secretary of state’s office failed to provide accurate information. Texas’ Republican attorney general sued to oppose extended voting hours for those confused voters. And the GOP-controlled state Supreme Court quickly ruled in its favor.
The cascade of preventable problems and anti-voting lawfare suggests the GOP is laying the groundwork to erect more hurdles in the fall, when voters return to the polls for multiple competitive races — including a high-profile one for the U.S. Senate.
Hundreds of voters in Dallas and Williamson counties were turned away and redirected to other polling locations Tuesday after local Republicans needlessly abandoned the countywide voting systems that previously allowed voters to cast a ballot at any polling location. Now voters were forced to go to a specific precinct polling place.
Under Texas election rules, Democrats were also beholden to the GOP’s decision to switch to precinct-based voting on Election Day.
Republicans offered little explanation for the change, with Williamson County Republican Party Chair Michelle Evans telling KUT News, “I could get into all of those details, but at the end of the day, it’s because we can. It’s legal. It’s something we’re entitled to do, and it’s something that our party would like us to do.”
But the switch to precinct voting aligns with a growing far-right push to scrap vote centers and require voting to be conducted in one place on one day.
The shift away from vote centers is based on conspiracy theories that allege voters are able to cast multiple ballots at multiple locations, Emily Eby French, an attorney with Common Cause Texas, told Democracy Docket.
Whether you have a Democratic or Republican U.S. Senator, I urge you to contact them and raise hell in opposing abolishing the filibuster to suppress the vote with the SAVE Act. Ciick here to do so.
And let’s get ready to finally flip Texas Blue! Click below to donate and get involved with Talarico and the Texas Democratic Party:
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