NBC News has called the race for Republican Clay Fuller. However, look at the margin of victory, which is what this election was all about for the Democrats in this very red GOP district. Remember, Marjorie Taylor Greene won it by 29% in 2024 and 32% in 2022. Trump carried it in 2024 by 37%!
The R margin of victory will grow as most of the uncounted votes were cast on election day.
But still…
45.1% expected votes in (Est. remaining 70,000)
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— At 8:39 pm EST, 57% of the vote is in. Fuller’s margin is still 8%, which is downright abysmal for the GOP!
— At 8:48 pm EST, with almost 67% of the vote in, Fuller’s up by 11%. Compared to 2024, that is a 18% swing from MTG to Dems. Compared to Trump, it is a swing of 26%, which is yuge!
— At 9:03 pm EST, with almost 76% of the votes counted, Fuller’s lead is still 11%.
— At 9:20 pm EST, Fuller is up by 15%, with 86% of the votes counted. Earlier this evening, Steve Kornacki of NBC News mentioned that if the Republican wins by less than a 20% margin, that spells trouble for the GOP in other elections in Georgia in November 2026, as well as in other states. Scroll a bit to see the historical margins of GOP victories in this district.
— At 9:57 pm EST, 92% of the vote is in. Fuller is up by 14%.
— 99% of the votes have been counted as of 10:41 pm EST. Fuller’s margin of victory is an unimpressive 11.8%.
- 2024 — R 29%
- 2022 — R 32%
- 2020 — R 49%
- 2018 — R 53%
- 2016 — R 100% (Unopposed)
- 2014 — R 100% (Unopposed)
- 2012 — R 46%
The Presidential winning margins in this same district were
- 2008 — R 40%
- 2012 — R 44%
- 2016 — R 45%
- 2020 — R 37%
- 2024 — R 37%
Polls will close at 7:00 pm EST in the Georgia 14th District Special Election
Donald Trump carried this congressional district by 37 points in 2024; if the Democratic candidate significantly cuts into that margin, it will signal serious trouble for the GOP heading into the 2026 midterm elections.
Here’s what you need to know.
Republican Clay Fuller is squaring off against Democrat Shawn Harris, who ran against Greene in 2024 and lost by roughly 30 points. The special election shifted to a runoff after neither candidate notched the majority they needed to win outright in March.
Harris has led the fundraising race and notched support from the likes of Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) and former Transportation secretary and possible 2028 presidential contender Pete Buttigieg. He won the most votes in the initial March 10 contest, but Republican candidates outnumbered Democrats and splintered voter support.
Trump has thrown his weight behind Fuller, and the chances of a Democratic flip are ultimately a long shot in a district the president won by around 37 percentage points in his 2024 White House bid, according to The Downballot.
Read more about this race — What to expect in Georgia's special congressional runoff to replace Marjorie Taylor Greene
2026 Midterm Elections — Trouble Brewing for the GOP?
Here is some very interesting news about the trouble the Republican Party finds itself in 2026.
G. Elliot Morris: “New estimates I’ve produced show that Trump’s approval rating is below 50% among registered voters in 135 Republican-held congressional seats — 104 in the House and 31 in the Senate.”
“And his approval is below 45% in jurisdictions represented by 44 Republican members of Congress — 34 in the House and 10 in the Senate.”
More good news about Democratic chances to regain the US House of Representatives in the 2026 Midterm Elections.
Cook Political Report: “The political environment for House Republicans continues to look bleak. Even before President Donald Trump’s approval rating reached a nadir amid spiking gas prices and an unpopular war with Iran, special and off-year elections showed Democrats with a significant enthusiasm advantage and Republicans were trailing the national generic ballot by five to six points.”
“Our latest round of House race ratings changes includes five moves to the left and one move to the right, reflecting Republicans’ broader midterm struggles as well as specific developments in each race.”
Mediaite: House Republicans need to win 76% of Toss Ups to keep their majority.
Election Results
Watch the results being analyzed live by Steve Kornacki of NBC News.
You can also follow the GA Special Election live election results here. This is primarily a rural district. At both these sites, you’ll see a map of Georgia’s 14th Congressional District. Scroll over each county to see results from that county.
