The special election to fill Marjorie Taylor Greene’s seat was held today. And with 78% of the voted counted, Republican Clayton Fuller is ahead of Democrat Shawn Harris 57%-43%.
In earlier days, some people complained that I didn’t share the enthusiasm for Harris’ chances. I didn’t. And I certainly didn’t ensdorse contributing funds to his campaigfn.
As we move into the November election, there will be hundreds of races in play. Democrats have a huge opportunity to win up and down the ticket. But not every race on the Board. And with finite resources of time and money we all have to make choices of whom to support and whom not to. Yes, Democrats have down amazingly well in previous special elections. But the reality is 1) there are still a lot of Republicans (MAGA or otherwise) and 2) we will lost races around the country, no matter what the average Democratic overperformance has been.
In 2024, MTG won her seat 64-36. Shawn Harris certainly improved on that result. But the reality is, GA-14 is an R+19 district, and MTG was actually popular among the electorate. The chances of a Democratic win here were virtually non-existent.
Meanwhile, there are currently 14 vulnerable Republican House seats, not counting the possible LEAN and LIKELY R seats that may be in play given a potential blue wave. However much you don’t like Republicans, the way to defeat them is to pick off the vulnerable ones (thus putting them in the minority) rather than target the one’s you viscerally hate. Consider that Republicans didn’t win the House in 2022 by targeting AOC or Hakeem Jeffries or NAncy Pelosi. They won by targeting the vulnerable Democrats in swing districts, not safe blue cities.
In two weeks (waiting for new FEC data) I’ll publish the first iteration of my model for 2026, with data-driven analysis of what is in play and what is not. We’re best off being thoughtful rather than emotional in deciding where to put our support.
