This has got to be the Dumbest War Negotiations in 2,000 years of World History. And yet, breathless Americans (particularly of the pundit and political class) sigh relief that Trump did not nuke Iran and murder 90 million civilians.
He was NEVER going to nuke Iran. Sunni Saudis (Trump's patron Bone Saw) would never have allowed it, because it would irradiate them. Bahrain (Shia), a critical US military ally, would not allow the irradiating decimation of its holy Shia sites in Iran. If you believed he would, you are a useful idiot of Trump propaganda, but he counts on that you would. The Trump exit propaganda was predicated on the LIE that the "Strait of Hormuz is CLOSED". His "peace through might" exit strategy to extricate him(Stupid)self by Winning by Retreating, required acceptance of his emphatically incessantly yelled lie that Hormuz was Closed and only he ("I, alone") would Open Hormuz after NATO quite reasonably abandoned the dumb untrustworthy MotherF-er. (Macron has figured Trump out by saying that Trump is Not A Serious man, and should "Stop talking." More in the US opposition should say the same.)
As I wrote in a previous diary, tankers non-aligned with Trump and Bibi have been trafficking through Hormuz since Trump's unprovoked attack. There were some commenters who took issue with my factual wording by parsing Trump's definition of Closed - brilliant, wot? I only learned last night that those passing tankers include China-aligned tankers who do not (!) pay a cash transit fee for Iran military's safe passage coordinates. (Russia has provably provided Iran with attack data against US military positions, I now assume China is doing similar as passage payment "in kind". Ain't Trump so smart he gave China cover for exposing US military vulnerabilities and killing US troops?)
The reason it remains essential to deconstruct and challenge Trump's framing words is because they are deliberate predicates for the next Act - whether Act II is Trump Attacks or Act II.B is Trump Retreats by Declaring Victory over a non-existent or over-hyped thing. He "won" on tariffs, remember. Him a Big Tough Fearsome elderly old man winning fights with Straw Closures.
Trump understands manipulation of the gullible - headline writers and the average reader, alike. He has made a career using propaganda, including on the lie he created some fictitious but Bigly Brained "The Art of the Deal." By claiming "Iran Agreed To OPEN Hormuz" he can insist he "alone" beat Iran because They Fear Him.
Meanwhile, the truth is, Trump Negotiated His Own Surrender. Non-US-aligned countries were already getting through Hormuz, now Trump additionally successfully negotiated more, better, best additional US surrender by: removing George W Bush era Iranian oil sanctions, more nations have reasons to dis-align from the US, he fractured NATO, Iran now has a highly profitable side hustle selling tolls, the new Iranian dictatorship is more empowered, and the US military has had its embarrassing vulnerabilities on public display (like Putin's also "two week" blitzkrieg to Kiev that fell apart on rotting Chinese tires stuck in the mud on the road to Glorious Victory). With all that Hegseth gloating about faux manly US military air power and almost 1000 Tomahawks, Iran survives and Trump surrenders. Trump might as well admit Jimmy Carter versus Iran was a better, more resolute US President (He was.) Trump negotiated a US military retreat against a Third Rate military nation. That's the Actual Headline. Brilliant.
