It may be years before analysts and military historians are able to sort out just how much of what’s happening now in northern Ukraine is the result of Russia seeking to consolidate territorial gains to the south, and how much is simply having their asses handed to them in a bucket (My guess: 10% / 90%). But in any case, on Friday the list of Ukrainian cities and towns liberated, and the collection of Russian equipment left behind, is growing almost too quickly to catalog.

The Battle of Kyiv is definitely over. Russian forces swept to within 15km of the city on the second day of the invasion. They never came closer to taking it.

Throughout the day on Friday, reports have been filled with locations once again under Ukraine’s control. Velyka Dymerka, on the northeast of Kyiv, is completely back under Ukrainian control. So are villages much further east, near Nova Bassan. Those northwestern suburbs that have seemed to be daily in the news for so long—Bucha, Irpin, Hostomel—are all now well behind a line of advance that is racing northward. What Russian forces are left in the area are the subject of mopping up operations. If Russia ever had plans for digging in along a line anchored on the west by Ivankiv, they need to change that plan—because Ukraine retook Ivankiv on Friday morning.

Maybe the Russians finally realized that they were setting up their defensive flank in an area still rife with radioactive dust from Chernobyl. Or maybe they’re just running away. 

Looking at this map from yesterday, and trying to track the amount of Russian control that remains in this area, the answer appears to be none of it. There may still be some Russian forces maneuvering north on the east side of this map, but on the west, all of that red and orange is gone. Simply gone. 

Instead, the Russian line has moved all the way off this map on the west, to something more like this. What’s going on in the east is less sure. Russian forces may be moving away to the northeast, or may have been cut off by Ukrainian forces.

But while everything looks very much worth celebrating near Kyiv, there’s a change in the east that definitely favors Russia. After holding out for a solid month, the residents and small military force in the southern half of Izyum, which had prevented the Russian forces shelling the town from moving to the south, are reported to have fallen. 

That means that it’s now possible for Russian forces to continue south along the M03 highway toward Slovyansk, advancing their goal of cutting off Ukrainian forces along the Donbas defensive lines.

There are Ukrainian forces in place at Slovyansk, which could become the next big obstacle in Russia’s path. and there’s another critical river crossing—the Kazenyi Torets—but that bridge is on the southeast side of the city, meaning that Ukrainian forces can’t defend from behind the river without abandoning Slovyansk. 

Meanwhile, on Thursday Ukrainian forces made advances down the M03 from Kharkiv, and looked to be possibly threatening the Russian supply lines where they reach the highway at Volokhiv Yar. If those forces can continue, it doesn’t matter much what the Russians do to their south, because a cut-off force with limited food, fuel, and ammo won’t be effective for long. 

All of this ends up looking very much like a race. Can Russian forces make their way south to Slovyansk quickly, when they’ve not demonstrated such rapid movement in the last weeks? Can Ukraine push to Volokhiv Yar, despite all this action taking place close to the Russian border and Russian controlled areas, which could mean Russian air support and artillery? How quickly can either side reposition forces now being freed up in the area around Kyiv?

The second phase of the Putin’s invasion of Ukraine is underway, and predicting what happens next is far from easy.