For the Democrats:

You don't need me to tell you that Iowa is close. It could be taken by any of the top tier Dems. Blitz boy, in an excellent diary that I'm summarizing here, has the Democratic race looking like this:

• IF Edwards wins Iowa AND IF Clinton comes in second, Obama is wounded. Clinton probably takes NH, MI and NV. Super Tuesday spells the end of the race: Clinton wins.
• IF Edwards wins Iowa, AND IF Hillary comes in third, then NH is a three-way race.

  Here's where it gets complicated:

  • IF Hillary then wins in NH, THEN she's the nominee.
  
  
  • However, IF Edwards is the NH winner AND IF Clinton is second, THEN Obama is toast. Clinton probably wins NV, SC and the nomination.
  
  
  • Lastly, IF Obama wins in NH AND IF Clinton is second, THEN she will still win MI and recover in NV. She's looking good on Super Tuesday.
  
  
  • Regardless, IF Clinton is third in NH, THEN she's toast and the race is between Edwards and Obama. Advantage: Obama.
  
  
• IF Obama wins Iowa AND NH, THEN he wins the nomination.


• IF Clinton wins Iowa, THEN it's over. She wins the nomination.

On the Republican side, Pat Buchanan has it this way:

• First off, IF Romney wins Iowa, THEN he'll win NH and MI and will probably be the nominee.


• However, IF Huckabee wins Iowa AND IF McCain's recent progress in NH is for real and he wins there, THEN Romney is on life-support. At that point, McCain has a real chance at the nomination by becoming the anti-Huckabee, especially if Thompson drops out and endorses him before SC. However, IF Huckabee wins SC, THEN Huckabee has the inside track.


• In fact, IF Huck wins Iowa AND IF Romney wins NH, THEN its curtains for everyone else and it will be a two man sprint to the finish: Mitt vs. Huck.

Summary observations on the rest of the field:

• Giuliani is close to toast. He'll lose Iowa and NH, then MI and SC. Even now, his firewall in Florida is crumbling. By Super Tuesday, IF he is 0-5, THEN it's over for him.


• Same for Thompson. He might have a good showing in Iowa (IF Romney and Huckabee rip each other apart), but he probably won't win there. He will also not win NH (where he is polling behind Ron Paul). Nor will he win in MI. After all that, he may not even make it to SC (where he is polling #3 behind Romney and Huckabee), let alone win it. In fact, IF he flops in Iowa, THEN he'll drop out and endorse McCain (see above).

So, two weeks out from Iowa, here are the odds, according to Pat Buchanan:

• Giuliani: 20-1


• Thompson: 20-1


• McCain: 6-1


• Romney: 3-2


• Huckabee: ?? Buchanan isn't taking bets on Huck, although he does see him likely finishing in the top two.

What do you think?