...and run your campaign on policy details. Conventional wisdom has it that workers in Pennsylvania (and Ohio and elsewhere) need to know how they're going to pay next months' rent. They need to know how to put groceries on the table this week if they've lost their jobs. They need to know how to deal with that latest salary cut. They need to know how to going to pay those medical bills when the credit card is maxed out. The conventional wisdom is that they want to know exactly how any politician is going to help them.

• How you plan to stop foreclosures?


• How you plan to improve public health?


• How you plan to bring tax relief to workers?


• ...and so forth.

In other words, CW says that you must provide a menu of programs with prices clearly marked.

But that doesn't make sense to me and here's why...

If there is anything these voters are, it's cynical. Time and again they've been promised things that didn't materialize. And after a while, they don't believe anything they hear. So how can it be that they'll believe it this time? How can it be that this time they can take it to the bank -- and that you're the one to make it happen?

Let's be blunt...

It didn't happen in 2002; it didn't happen in 2004; and it didn't happen in 2006 (think "Congressional stalemate"). And, regardless of who wins the Dem nomination this time around, the Republicans are counting on Pennsylvanians (and those in the other 49 states) to NOT vote their pocketbooks this time around either.

Here's why they might be right...

Look at who the Republicans are running: a jaunty maverick, a studly pragmatist who brags about his ignorance of economics, who presents himself as a warrior-king who would lead us into one hundred years of battle. And he's in a dead heat with the party of the pocketbook. Do battleground-state voters really want to know about where next month's rent is coming from or could it be that want to ride to the sound of the guns and follow a war hero onto a foreign field of battle?

Oh, you can say that this time, for sure, the Republicans' mojo is gone. This time, for sure, the Dems can get people to vote their pocketbooks. Or this time, for sure, the war will be the issue that provides the Dems the issue they need to take back the White House.

But here's a question you better ask yourself...

Is it possible that voters are even remotely more excited by warrior than by bureaucrat? I think you already know the answer to that question.

Here's the more important question:

How do you fight an opponent like this? Do you do it by trying to be more like him -- by pushing yourself over the Commander in Chief threshold while ticking off your menu of programs and beating him on "the issues?" Is it possible to be all things to all people? And are these really the only choices?

The answer to this question is crucial.

It might be the key that unlocks the front door of the White House. After all, Pennsylvania went for Kerry by a narrow 51%-49% in the last election and many surveys show the state in a dead heat today regardless of who the Dem nominee is.

So how it is that people who are hurting so bad could still make a close election out of it time and again? Or, to paraphrase Thomas Frank, "what's the matter with Pennsylvania?" The answer: nothing is wrong with Pennsylvania (or Kansas or Ohio for that matter). Voters there are like voters anywhere -- they size up a candidate first, then they decide if they can believe anything they say about their programs.

If you're a Republican...

...if you're a big believer in The Ownership Society (or the You're-On-Your-Own Society), if you are all for privatizing profits and nationalizing risk, how you look and how you sound are the most important thing. Because, to be blunt, the majority of voters simply do not want what you're selling. If they did, you wouldn't call it something else. Think I'm wrong? I've got three words for you: "Clear Skies Initiative." The End.

If you're a Democrat...

...if you're a big believer in campaigning using policy detail, then you don't have a lot of room for error. Fact is, only a small part of what you're selling ever stands a chance of surviving the campaign, let alone the very first session of the legislature -- if you get elected. Hence the cynicism about government -- and politicians (especially ones like you). So you, too, have to rely on something other than policy detail.

So what do you do?

On one hand, you've got the Pennsylvania voter who's dying out there but on the other hand you're running neck and neck with a party that doesn't give a goddam about your pocketbook -- all they want is your vote and they'll do anything to get it. Specifically, they'll scare the crap out of you.

It's the one thing that moves voters most effectively:

Fear. It moves voters. Every time. For example, fear of death. Studies have shown that when people are reminded of their own mortality, they will choose the most conservative course of action every time. No surprise there: wouldn't you act that way? "Be careful! One false move and we're all dead." Doesn't it seem plausible that the guy who can point this out -- effectively -- is going to hold the upper hand every time? Better yet -- if he's someone who has cheated death in the past.

So what we get from Republicans is endless talk about islamofascism and jihadism. Suitcase nukes. The caliphate stretching from Spain to the Philippines. And an opponent named Iraq Barack Hussein Osama Obama. OK, sorry. That was uncalled for. I reject those who suggest that my worthy opponent is not an American, not a Christian, not a patriot. He is a fine American. As far as we know. Um, what were we talking about? Your pocketbook? Oh yes. Right. Of course. Bottom line: Republicans don't win with programs and policies -- and neither will Democrats.  

Here's how you win Pennsylvania -- or any state...

Instead of talking about running the government, talk about leading the nation. Appeal to the one thing that trumps policy: emotion. Does this mean you have to use hate and fear? You could, but you don't have to. Does this mean you invoke feel-good notions of hope? Not if you believe that Pennsylvania is a "hopeless land."

Here's how to use emotion against an opponent -- and a party -- that is already using it quite effectively:

You do it by invoking pride. You begin by telling a story about how our -- your and my -- forebears struggled against similar (or worse) odds and prevailed. And you cast your opponent in the role of the villain in that not-so-faraway time. You include your voters as part of a much larger family who once fought against outside forces that sought to tear them down (and apart from each other).

You tell them that they come from a long line of brave and resourceful people -- and they, too, are brave and resourceful people. You lead them into action, against a similar foe today. You level with them: yes, it's difficult. Yes, the odds are long. The foe is tough. But you tell them that if they stick together, if they fight for each other, together, they can prevail. Their ancestors did it; and now it's their turn. This is their -- our -- time. A future generation will look back at us -- what will we show them? What will they learn from us?

Together we -- all of us -- can prevail. The people who founded this country understood that. That's why the first flag had these three words on it: Join or Die.

For the more educated among them, those who knew a little bit of Latin, they put it another way: E Pluribus Unum: One from Many.

Today we might say it a bit differently: We're all in this thing together. However you want to say it, it is in our DNA. We gather strength from -- and for -- each other. And together, as our forebears did, we can change the world.

THAT'S how you win Pennsylvania -- and that's how you lead the nation.