Cheer up Obama supporters. It looks like Hillary's "Obama can't win the big states" argument isn't swaying any of the Superdelegates, even after the Pennsylvania Primary results. A new article in Politico makes the case that all this drama (my word) over who will win the nomination is unnecessary.
Notwithstanding the plentiful commentary to the effect that the Pennsylvania primary must have shaken superdelegates planning to support Barack Obama, causing them to rethink their position, key Democrats on Capitol Hill are unbudged.
"I don’t think anyone’s shaken," a leading House Democrat told me. The critical mass of Democratic congressmen that has been prepared to endorse Obama when the timing seemed right remains prepared to do so. Their reasons, ones they have held for months, have not changed – and by their very nature are unlikely to.
And the Author Elizabeth Drew lays out the key reasons why this is all a lot of huffing and puffing that will blow NO ONE's house down:
- 1. Hillary is too polarizing.
Hillary Rodham Clinton is such a polarizing figure that everyone who ever considered voting Republican in November, and even many who never did, will go to the polls to vote against her, thus jeopardizing Democrats down the ticket
- 2. Would alienate much of the Democratic base
To take the nomination away from Obama when he is leading in the elected delegate count would deeply alienate the black base of the Democratic Party, and, in the words of one leading Democrat.
- 3. The African American vote.
Because the black vote can make the decisive difference in numerous congressional districts, discarding Obama could cost the Democrats numerous seats.
The media has been positively salivating over the fact the Obama failed to win over Blue Collar Whites, Reagan Democrats, Older White Women, and whatever other descriptor they can give to try and amplify narrative that whites won't vote for a black man. (I sincerely have my doubts about this. Ohio and Pennsylvania are NOT indicative of the white voters of the rest of the country). And it looks like the Democratic leaders tend to agree with me.
They point out something that has been largely overlooked in all the talk – the Ohio and Pennsylvania primaries were closed primaries, and, one key congressional Democrat says, "Yes, he doesn’t do really well with a big part of the Democratic base, but she doesn’t do well with independents, who will be critical to success in November."
It's pretty clear the Democratic leaders aren't buying the Hillary spin, but are determined to see this thing out till the last Primary is held out of respect for Clinton and her supporters.
But the prevailing thinking is to allow the race to play out, avoiding a confrontation with Clinton and her backers, but also letting the pressure grow on her to justify continuing to fight a bloody but lost cause. This is, the thinking goes, the best and perhaps only way to get the thing wrapped up, as they so desperately want to do.