Will it hold true this year? I have no idea. So many of these traditional rules no longer apply -- e.g., to win the presidency you have to win the New Hampshire primary. This year we're hearing a lot about the importance of West Virginia to Democratic nominees for president. In prior years we've heard a similar admonition about the importance of Ohio to Republican nominees.

Recently I read Kevin Hayden's "electability analysis" that considered the most recent polls in each state. Let's use that yardstick to analyze the Mississippi River basin states. Caution: we're so far out from November (or even August) that the polls today might be meaningless.

That said...

• Of those 10 states, Obama is ahead by double digits in two: Illinois and Minnesota.
• McCain is ahead by double digits in five: Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Kentucky and Tennessee.
• Obama is ahead by single digits in one: Iowa
• McCain is ahead by single digits in two: Missouri and Wisconsin

So, as it stands now, the region breaks for McCain, 7-3. Clearly, Obama has his work cut out for him.

Which states can Obama pick off to at least get to 6-4?

• Well, Missouri and Wisconsin are the obvious targets. And how about them Razorbacks? Can Arkansas be convinced to vote for Obama (with or without Hillary on the ticket?)
• Kentucky is probably a lost cause but Tennessee is doable -- and Gov. Phil Bredesen has been my stealth pick for VP from the get-go.
• Louisiana and Mississippi have been in the news recently (with the election of Childers and my new Congressman, Cazayoux) but I seriously doubt either state votes for Obama in the end.

In summary: Obama needs three of the following four states -- AR, TN, MO, WI -- to make it to the White House. Can Obama pull it off? Or is this, at least, the year when the region breaks for the loser?

What's your take on it?

UPDATE: The notion of Bill Clinton tooling around the back roads of Arkansas making speeches off the bed of a pickup truck, begging for absolution, appeals to me at this point. How about you? Think he'd do it? Nah. Me neither.