The Real Clear Politics Average today is showing increasing distance in the near complete Democratic Primary, and breaks milestones. Averaging Five Polls, it's showing:
Obama: 52.2%
Clinton: 39.4%
This is by far the largest lead Obama has received in this metric of the race. A large move has occurred the last several days in Gallup and Rasmussen, while Zogby has essentially blown the roof off.
More importantly however today is the new Rasmussen Poll from Colorado, possibly the most pivotal state on Obama's expanded Map.
Obama: 48% (46%)
McCain: 42% (43%)
Obama now attracts 77% of the vote from Democrats while McCain earns 79% support from Republicans. Among unaffiliated voters, Obama leads by twenty-one percentage points. A month ago, Obama had a ten-point lead among unaffiliated voters.
Obama is viewed favorably by 55% of Colorado voters, up two points from a month ago. McCain is viewed favorably by 51%, down six points from a month ago.
Rasmussen Markets data shows that Democrats are currently given a 64.8 % chance of winning Colorado’s nine Electoral College votes this November.
Colorado is the sort of state that renders W. Virginia and Kentucky meaningless. It's the Western state that is pivotal to Obama's victory. As Colorado goes, so does Nevada and New Mexico in all likelyhood. And this is before Obama has really returned to the state...
Colorado is one of the few states where Obama clearly outperforms Clinton in general election match-ups. In the unlikely event that Clinton were to win the Democratic nomination, she trails McCain 47% to 44% in the state.
Obama leads McCain on issues as follows:
Economy (41% of State)
Obama: 53%
McCain: 39%
Iraq (21% of State)
Obama: 63%
McCain: 28%
Obama's growing lead in Colorado is impressive and his ability to put more of the map in play is going to be the story of June IMO as many of these states begin to show distinct Obama advantages.
Yesterday I wrote about how the SUSA PA poll has answered the electability arguement...
SUSA is now out with their new poll, including various head-to-head match ups.
Topline:
Obama: 48% (42%)
McCain: 40% (47%)
Undec: 12% (21%)
White Voters:
Obama: 43%
McCain: 44%
Undec: 13%
Independents:
Obama: 44%
McCain: 41%
Undec: 15%
Democrats:
Obama: 70%
McCain: 17%
Undec: 13%
Republicans:
McCain: 76%
Obama: 16%
Undec: 8%
Hispanics:
Obama: 82%
McCain: 17%
Undec: 12%
Women:
Obama: 50%
McCain: 36%
Undec: 14%
Men:
Obama: 46%
McCain: 44%
Undec: 10%
After reviewing PA's Polling and the recent North Carolina SUSA Poll that shocks and shows Clinton winning with Obama losing vs. McCain, I'm developing a hypothesis that over time, Clinton voters return to Obama, but that takes a 4-6 week gestation period during which they go through the five stages of grief. Polling out of Pennsylvania, New Jersey, California, Ohio and Colorado now indicate that Obama is solidifying the party base and Clinton voters... by July, Obama should hit his stride into the convention. With a United Democratic Party, this year, Victory is Very Very Probable.