ABC Just released their poll here
Of course the article skews and head fakes its way to champion the horserace, highlighting every strenght of McCain while overlooking the Obama strengths.
All told, Obama leads McCain among registered voters by 8 points in this ABC/Post poll, 50-42 percent.
Turnout makes a difference: It's 51-39 percent among all adults overall, but narrows to a close 49-46 percent match among likely voters. As noted, Republicans are among those more likely to vote; young adults, less so.
And that's the key... which story is the media willing to tell and while lie are they willing to live by for ratings. Pick your byline:
Likely Voters:
Obama 49, McCain 46
Registered Voters:
Obama 50, McCain 42
Obama 49, McCain 39, Barr 2, Nader 5
Adults:
Obama 51, McCain 39
Obama 49, McCain 36, Barr 2, Nader 5
You see, it's easy for the media to count the "likely voters" instead of Registered voters, as the RCP people are already doing. What should be noted though is that the Obama strategy/effect is simply not yet known in terms of how it'll affect the outcome.
I'm inclined to side with Chuck Todd on this one and agree that in this year, with Obama's gameplan, it's safer to count the Registered Voters total rather than Likely voters total. Obama is clearly going to go all out to maximize turn out and get his Registered Voters number to the polls.
Here's Nate Silver on the matter:
In Missouri, Obama will have 150 paid organizers and maintain a 12-1 paid organizer edge in my native state. Show-me, indeed. In Michigan, Obama will put an unprecedented 150 field organizers on the ground. In Ohio, why not go for 300 field organizers? That sounds like a nice, absurdly large, round number.
This is the campaign equivalent of invasion with overwhelming force. In the coming days, we should be hearing more reports like these from other battlegrounds, giving us a clearer and clearer picture of each campaign’s voter contact strategy. Already, however, Marc Ambinder has pointed out that:
The polls don't account for the force multiplier effect that Obama's campaign will almost certainly bring to bear with its millions of volunteers and thousands of paid staffers. Whether that effect is 1.01, 1.05 or even 1.3 -- we don't know yet. But even the McCain campaign acknowledges its existence.
Those paid organizers are each recruiting underneath them volunteers and precinct captains (themselves responsible for recruitment and management of volunteers). As I’ve said before, it’s a pyramid scheme aimed at massive voter-to-voter contact. Millions and millions and millions of voter contacts, all knocked out 5, 10, 50 at a time by volunteers. The info gleaned from the contacts is re-looped into the voter file, and repeat contacts are thereby more informed (undecideds can be persuaded; supporters can be urged to early vote; banked early votes allow campaigns to use resources more efficiently in the closing days, etc.). The principle is: voters persuade other voters more personally and powerfully than a 30-second TV ad. Ads give impressions; real people close the sale.
His posting here is exactly the reason why one can discount the major media narritives. Simply put, ABC and others are just disinterested in telling the story of the ground game. It's not interesting to watch, it's not interesting to cover, and it's not interesting to talk about, other than acknowledging it's presence. This is why I guess we all blog and read blogs, to get the actual story that drives the polls.