Yes, sorry, another Sarah Palin diary, kind of.
Like all of you here I have been rather engrossed by McCain's pick of the virtually unkown Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin. It just seems like such a stunningly bad choice that I am tempted to share in the jubilation expressed by others here that McCain just handed the election to Obama. But I am too much of a cynic and was too dissapointed by the Sunday morning talk shows to gain so much confidence.
What interests me here now is how others outside of the KOS community and the progressive left may react to the pick. In particular, it strikes me that many foriegn policy realists on both the right and left, who were already concerned with John McCain's agressive, neo-conservative approach to world affairs, might now be inclined to officially and formally support Obama.
Join me below the flip to explore some possibilities.
There is a large chunk of the Republican party that has long been upset with George W. Bush's morally bankrupt, neo-conservative, unilateral foriegn policy. They have kept relatively quiet because they are Republicans first and formost and many of them are also close friends to his father, George HW Bush. The realist camp though were horrified by the Bush Doctrine of preemptive war, the prospect of nation building on a massive scale, and the and they blanched at the erosion of support for the US among its closest allies and in important international institutions (from the World Bank, to the IMF, to the UN).
These folks have also never really liked John McCain and as McCain has hewed more and more closely to Bush's foriegn policy approach they have refused to endorse him. Some have even already endorsed Obama.
The four best examples of such individuals that I can think of are:
- Susan Eisenhower
- Colin Powell
- Chuck Hagel
- James Baker
There are many others to be sure. Both Nixon and Henry Kissinger would fall into the realist camp as would, I believe George HW Bush. Please list other folks you may know of below.
And some of them, like Susan Eisenhower, have already left the Republican party and endorsed Senator Obama. Eisenhower is an impressive figure and she gave a rather overlooked speech at Invesco Field prior in support of Obama-Biden. (You can check out here speech here: Eisenhower's Speech at DNC )
Here is, IMHO, the best part from her speech:
Overseas, our credibility is at an all time low. We must restore our international leadership position and the leverage that goes with it...
I believe that Barack Obama has the energy, but more importantly, the temperament, to run this country and provide the leadership we need. He knows that we can either advance on the distant hills of hope– or retreat to the garrisons of fear. He can mobilize and inspire all of us to show up for duty. Discipline will be required; as will compromise, flexibility and quiet strength.
--btw: notice how she points to Obama's temperment--
It strikes me that there are many in the realist camp on the Republican side who care most about foriegn policy. McCain's selection of Sarah Palin, the little known Alaskan governor, you know the one with absolutely no foriegn policy experience, has to infuriate them and may even drive some of them into an open endorsement of Obama.
There has already been discussion here at KOS about the possibility now of a Colin Powell endorsement. See the following diaries:
Colin Powell: Redemption Time
and
Colin Powell: Which Ticket do you Support?
Apparently a Powell spokesperson said:
On Wednesday (8/13/08), Powell's adviser said the vice presidential picks for both candidates would be a major factor in his decision, both for the quality of each man's running mate and for what sort of "signal that choice sends about the character and judgment of the candidate."
I just can't see how Powell now could endorse McCain. I know there are some who would say (and have said so already in the diaries comment section listed above) that they don't care at all about an endorsement from Powell, that he is a discredited shill for a corrupt and criminal administraton. I guess I could agree with that. Only I might add that we are not the target audience for such an endorsement. A Powell endorsement would generate some serious news, especially if placed in the context of McCain's reckless VP selection. Furthermore, a Powell endorsement would carry weight with independents and some moderate Republicans.
An even bigger deal than a Powell endorsement would be one from Senator Chuck Hagel. Hagel traveled with Obama overseas and has had alot of nice things to say about Obama. However, Hagel has made it clear that he will not endorse a candidate in this election:
From Politic USA
After Jim Leach put Sen. Chuck Hagel’s name out there as a potential running mate for Barack Obama, Hagel’s office put out a statement which said that he is not endorsing McCain or Obama.
"Senator Hagel has no intention of getting involved in any of the campaigns and is not planning to endorse either candidate," Hagel spokesman Jordan Stark said in a statement to USA TODAY. The bigger bombshell is that Hagel won’t even be attending the Republican convention.
McCain and Hagel are friends and his non-endorsement already is a real slap in the face of McCain. However, I am hoping that McCain's pick of VP will be seen with such derision by people like Hagel that they now would move to endorse Obama. Team Obama should be pressing hard now to woo over folks like Hagel and I only hope that they are thinking in such terms.
Then there are folks like James Baker. He has already endorsed McCain and there is no hope that he would change his mind or make a switch. However, he has consistently made public statements that seem to endorse Obama's position. For example he said in October:
"Diplomacy involves talking to your enemies. You don't reward your enemies necessarily by talking to them if you are tough and you know what you are doing. You don't appease them. Talking to an enemy is not in my view appeasement."
Now we can't expect someone like Baker to see the light and join our forces but I am sure there are many, many Republican foriegn policy elites who 1) really hate Bush, 2) distrust Mccain, and 3) secretly support or are not too terrified by the thought of an Obama-Biden presidency. I would also bet good money that many of these same folks are also schocked and horrified by the selection of Sarah Palin as McCain's VP. These folks would be the best ones to make the strong case not against Palin but against McCain, his lack of judgement and his reclessness for selecting her.
Let me be clear: it is not that I value the opinion of these folks. But others in the media and on the center-right do value them and for that reason, their support of Obama would be worth pursuing.
I hope Team Obama is moving in that direction.
UPDATE: Below some have suggested Dick Lugar, the Republican senator from Indiana, as another possible foriegn poilicy realist that might now support Obama. Good catch serrano!
Here is some info on Lugar/Obama that is a little outdated from Carpetbagger.com:
By all appearances, Barack Obama has a genuine friendship with Sen. Dick Lugar of Indiana, despite the fact that Lugar is a conservative Republican. The two don’t agree on much, but they’ve worked closely on counter-proliferation — a point that Obama emphasized in a new TV ad unveiled on Tuesday.
"The single most important national security threat that we face is nuclear weapons falling into the hands of terrorists," Obama says in the ad. "What I did was reach out to Senator Dick Lugar, a Republican, to help lock down loose nuclear weapons." The spot is running in 18 states, including 14 "red" states, one of which is Indiana.
The next day, the Obama campaign unveiled a similar ad noting Obama’s work on the issue, and while it didn’t mention Lugar by name, the ad did show Obama and Lugar side by side in the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.
That Obama would seek to make this connection isn’t especially surprising. Not only is Lugar popular in a state Obama hopes to win, but the political establishment considers Lugar a very respected elder on matters of foreign affairs. If Obama and Lugar have worked together on the single most important national security threat in the world, then it bolsters Obama’s campaign pitch.
What’s curious, though, is that this is something of a risk. If the Obama campaign goes out of its way to tout Obama’s work with Lugar, and Lugar turns around and praises John McCain — or worse, says he disapproves of Obama’s ads — it could be politically embarrassing.
But that’s not what’s happened.
In fact, when Lugar had the chance to cut Obama off at the knees, Lugar did the opposite.
Lugar, who received a heads-up about the ad from Obama’s campaign, told reporters in Washington that he had no objection to the ad and is "pleased we had that opportunity to work together."
"I’ve made no attempt to either suggest or censor ads run by Democratic candidates for office," Lugar said Tuesday. "But I’ll simply say that the ad is accurate and that the transaction with regard to both the trip as well as the legislation we produced was successful."
Granted, that’s not exactly an endorsement, but it certainly reinforces Obama’s message nicely — on the a pressing national security issue, Obama worked across the aisle and made a difference. Don’t believe him? Listen to the conservative red-state Republican who says Obama’s right.
That’s not a bad message to have right now.
I should add, by the way, that Charlie Cook suggested the other day that it’s not "outside of the realm of possibility" that Obama would consider Lugar for a running mate. That seems exceedingly unlikely, but in case there was any doubt, Lugar’s chief of staff told the Indianapolis Star with a laugh, "No. Hell, no."
It’s not personal, he said, it’s just that Lugar isn’t eyeing national office.
On a tangential note: I really hope the MSM will start it's own vetting process of Palin and not just on all the domestic stuff people have been writing about here. I want someone in the press to begin asking her questions about what we should be doing in Iraq, Pakistan, and Iran. How should we deal with Russia? With the expansion of NATO? etc, etc, etc. The follow-up questions will be key because I am sure she can remember a rehersed talking point.
I mean come on, for once in the life of this adminstration, can the main stream press just do their job??? I was not encouraged by the morning talk shows today.
Sorry for my little diary-ending rant.