There has been a lot of uproar about the disgraceful comments about women and Social Security made by Al Simpson, co-chair of the National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform. (the "NCFRR")
Al Simpson is an insufferable boor, a sexist, and an enemy of Social Security and the social safety net.
He should never have been appointed in the first place, just like the NCFRR should never have been formed in the first place.
But, simple math indicates he needs to stay so long as the NCFRR exists. The reasons below the fold.
As a threshold matter, the NCFRR can issue a report and recommendations only if fourteen out of its eighteen members agree.
Sec. 5. Reports.
(a) No later than December 1, 2010, the Commission shall vote on the approval of a final report containing a set of recommendations to achieve the mission set forth in section 4 of this order.
(b) The issuance of a final report of the Commission shall require the approval of not less than 14 of the 18 members of the Commission.
In other words, one needs five members to block any NCFRR recommendations.
So, the question becomes--what effect would firing and replacing Al Simpson have?
To put it another way--under what circumstances would replacing Al Simpson improve the substance of the NCFRR's report and recommendations?
The answer is easy--Al Simpson's replacement, let's call him/her "Republican X" would have to be the fifth vote to block a NCFRR report that recommended raising the retirement age, cutting benefits, etc.
The Commission Members are:
Co-Chairman
Sen. Alan Simpson. Former Republican Senator from Wyoming.
Erskine Bowles, Chief of Staff to President Clinton
Commissioners
Sen. Max Baucus (D-MT)
Rep. Xavier Becerra (D-CA 31)
Rep. Dave Camp (R-MI 4)
Sen. Tom Coburn (R-OK)
Sen. Kent Conrad (D-ND)
David Cote, Chairman and CEO, Honeywell International
Sen. Mike Crapo (R-ID)
Sen. Richard Durbin (D-IL)
Ann Fudge, Former CEO, Young & Rubicam Brands
Sen. Judd Gregg (R-NH)
Rep. Jeb Hensarling (R-TX 5)
Alice Rivlin, Senior Fellow, Brookings Institute and former Director, Office of Management & Budget
Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI 1)
Rep. Jan Schakowsky (D-IL 9)
Rep. John Spratt (D-SC 5)
Andrew Stern, President, Service Employees International Union
There are 8 former elected/appointed Democrats and labor officials on the Commision, listed in bold. A ninth Democrat, Ann Fudge, is from the private sector as a former CEO, and I won't put her in the same category as this background makes her to much of a wildcard.
The most plausible scenario for a group of five to block a benefit cutting proposal from the NCFRR would be from the left, e,g, some combination of Schakowsky, Durbin, Stern + two others.
In order to increase the possibility of this happening, Republican X would have to be more pro-Social Security than 4/8 of the Democratic/labor officials (or 5/9 total Democrats) and all of the Republicans (including the CEOs, one of whom (Ann Fudge) is a Democrat). Only under that circumstance would Republican X be the fifth vote to oppose benefit cuts.
The percentage chance of that happening are equivalent to Bluto Blutarsky's grade point average.
But, replacing Simpson would have an effect on the likelihood of the Commission's findings being enacted.
Replacing Simpson with a Republican who has been less candid about his/her desire to destroy Social Security would increase the credibility and prestige of the NCFRR. It would make its proposed benefit cuts seem more moderate, having been produced by an ostensibly less tainted body.
Replacing Simpson would thus make benefit cuts more likely.
A things stand, Al Simpson is the NCFRR's biggest public relations liability, its single biggest demerit and an easy mark for people wishing to delegitimize it and whatever benefit cuts it proposes.
Why would we give that up? Why would we want to solve the benefit cutters biggest problem?
This is not to say that people should stop blasting Al Simpson, or even stop calling for his resignation/firing.
They should.
But, the goal should not be to persuade President Obama to fire him.
Rather, the goal should be to maximize the damage he has done to the NCFRR, either by proactively discrediting whatever it produces or by doing so much damage that the decision is made to pull the plug on the entire NCFRR as an ongoing body.
So, demand loudly that Al Simpson be fired. Just don't be disappointed if you don't get what you demand.
Minor UpdateDiary edited to reflect fact that Ann Fudge is in fact a Democrat, bringing the Commission's partisan balance to 9 Democrats to 7 Republicans. However, as a former CEO, Ms. Fudge is still distinguished from the other Democrats who have served in government as well as Andy Stern.