I've been buffeted by countervailing winds in the political climate over the past few months.
There's an ongoing debate as to whether the Democratics need a "big tent" strategy or a "don't compromise your core values" strategy. These views seem diametrically opposed, but both suggest that the Democratic Party as a whole is in big trouble. There is a general consensus that Democrats have a message problem as well as a fragmentation problem.
Meanwhile, the percentage of Americans who are registered Democrats is at an ebb, yet surveys indicate that most voters agree with Democrats on the issues.
Meanwhile, we've got Ruy Teixeira saying that long-term demographic shifts favor Democrats because of the growth of minority communities.
Cognizant of this trend, Republicans are reaching out to Hispanics and in some cases African Americans. President Bush has been vocal about inclusion, while paradoxically opposing affirmative action on the grounds that he favors a race-blind society and that quotas are wrong.
Meanwhile, we've got an aging population that is pushing the electorate to the right, because human nature is to become more conservative as one ages.
Meanwhile, we've got suburbanization trends that favor Republicans (although American urban cores have seen something of a renaissance lately). Suburbanites tend to favor lower taxes, fear multiculturism, don't respond as well to equity issues, and are generally more concerned about national security than urban voters.
Meanwhile, a large swath of the country seems to take the New Deal and the Great Society for granted. Economic development operates to push voters to the right.
Meanwhile, there is an evangelical revivial going on, and the Christian Right is at the height of its political power, with recent victories on stem cell and abortion rights.
Meanwhile, fear of terrorism has temporarily pushed voters to the right on national security issues.
Meanwhile, Republicans hold all three branches of government, and have declared an intention to become the majority party.
Republicans just won the governorship of one of the most liberal states in the country, California.
Meanwhile, we've got declining poll numbers for Bush, one of the most conservative Presidents of the past 100 years. It seems that the Iraq fiasco is the main reason.
So which way is the wind blowing?
