Notes
The intent of this exercise is to determine the delegate count at the end of the first large group of primaries on February 3. Totals at this point should go a long way toward determining which candidates might have the momentum and money to survive until Super Tuesday.
Where possible, I've used the latest polling data in determining how the delegates are distributed. Democratic party rules dictate that candidates are distributed proportionately based on popular vote. However, this doesn't mean there's a general 1-1 mapping of polling percentage to delegate percentage. Historical votes tend to be a little more lopsided than pre-election polls would indicate. Also, states that use a caucus process (like Iowa) usually have a "floor" of 15%. This doesn't prevent candidates polling less than this number from acquiring delegates, but does mean that those candidates have to have locally heavy representation to get on the board. In states where polling is old, I've swallowed my assumptions and put the numbers up pretty much as the old polls would dictate. However, we have new polls from several states this week, so the number should reflect the current thinking.
In some few states, I have no polling information. In these cases, I've tried to extrapolate from past trends or neighboring states. For example, I made North Dakota over in the image of Iowa (sorry Dakotans).
19 January
Iowa, 45 delegates+
Gephardt 20
Dean 15
Kerry 10
27 January
New Hampshire, 22 delegates
Dean 14
Kerry 08
3 February
Arizona, 55 Delegates
Dean 20
Clark 15
Kerry 10
Lieberman 10
Delaware, 15 delegates#
Dean 10
Kerry 05
Missouri, 74 delegates#
Gephardt 32
Dean 20
Kerry 13
Lieberman 09
New Mexico, 26 delegates+
Dean 11
Lieberman 09
Kerry 06
North Dakota, 14 delegates#+
Gephardt 08
Dean 06
Oklahoma, 40 delegates#
Gephardt 18
Dean 15
Kerry 07
South Carolina, 45 delegates
Clark 28
Edwards 17
Predicted Total after 3 February
Dean 111 (129)
Gephardt 078 (086)
Kerry 059 (039)
Clark 043 (033)
Lieberman 028 (028)
Edwards 017 (020)
+caucus state
# based on very old polls or a lot of guesswork
#+ both of the above
So what happened here? Dean went down, Gephardt went down, and Kerry went up. How did that happen? As usual: changes to polls and changes to formula.
Dean lost some edge in Iowa, and was clipped from the bottom of some other states as I tightened up the distribution formula. Gephardt's numbers edge up in Iowa, but go down overall mostly because of a significant decline elsewhere. Kerry gains a bit, despite still being well back in New Hampshire. Clark hovers in the middle. Bother Lieberman and Edwards continue to show weakness across the board. They are approaching the Candidates In Name Only stage.
I mentioned that in the last round, I switched to a method that should (hopefully) better represents the relationship between polling numbers and delegate distribution. I've tightened up that formula again after another round of crunching numbers from 1992. In some states, rules for delegate distribution have been changed over the last decade. I've done my best to account for this. However, it's likely that state-by-state results would still be more "lopsided" than is shown here. My toss up of the week: South Carolina. Based on this year's polls and last decade's results, the state just isn't soup yet. How it will firm up is anyone's guess.
I'd like to thank Cal Pol Junkie for his exceptional Primary State Poll Compendium which made the whole task of compiling the numbers one heck of a lot easier. What a service!
Now to see what effect Dean's endorsements have on the next set of numbers.