Just some random thoughts:
Dean got trounced. He did, and I say this as a still committed Dean supporter. Kerry and Edwards were doing what they were supposed to be doing in Iowa this past week or so and Dean has been slipping in the polls. I was curiously unfazed by the distance between the 1st and 2nd places and Dean's third. I unabashedly give kudos to Kerry and Edwards for having their act together on the ground.
That said, I really am kind of expecting a rubber ball effect for Dean on this. Dean can bounce back and place well in NH and now they know that their precinct captains need to be better prepared to persuade and not just show up. The one thing that has been consistent throughout Dean's campaign is the fact that when he gets knocked down -- and he has been knocked down repeatedly by the press and the other candidates -- he gets back up again.
I don't have the political acumen to dissect what happened or why, I rely on dkos posters for a better analysis and Tom and Trapper John and kos have been doing an excellent job thus far. And regardless of outcome, I think Dean needs to stay in, I want him to stay in, even if it's just to nip at the heals of whoever is at the front of the pack because they need it and we need it if we want any chance at all of taking the Bush administration out and putting it on the shelf.
I think it's entirely possible that Clark may be the upset to Kerry and/or Edwards in NH. The interesting thing will be to see if we have a four way run into the primaries and caucuses beyond. It's interesting to note that Kerry did much better once he turned away from his attacks on Dean and back to his own message. I think Dean should learn from that and ignore the attacks hurled his way -- although it will be interesting to see if the media attacks shift focus in the next week to take on the front runners or if it really is a matter of the press having a deep and abiding dislike of Dean (and to some extent his supporters.) Because whether he's the eventual nominee or not, the people and support Dean could redirect to another candidate is not something that should be ignored, if people truly are ABB.
