new polling released in the last week or two show
bad news for democratic nominee john kerry.
american research group released polls from new
hampshire and new mexico - very tight races in
2000 - showing bush in the lead in both states.
* new hampshire: bush has 48 percent, kerry has 43
percent, nader has 3 percent, with 6 percent being
undecided. without nader, bush leads kerry 48 to
45, with 7 percent undecided. nader takes 1
percent from both registered republican and
democratic voters.
* new mexico: bush has 46 percent, kerry 45
percent, nader 3 percent, with 6 undecided.
without nader, kerry and bush are tied with 47
with 6 percent remaining undecided. nader takes 2
percent of both registered republican and
democratic voters.
* west virginia: bush and kerry are tied at 46,
with nader at 3 percent and 6 percent undecided.
without nader, bush takes the lead, 47 to 46, with
7 percent undecided. one percent of republicans
and 2 percent of democrats plan to vote for nader.
here are some other state polls which look bad for
kerry:
* pennsylvania [franklin and marshall college's
center for opinion research]: kerry has had slight
leads in most polls here but the latest show bush
leading beyond the margin of error for the first
time: bush 46, kerry 40, nader 3, with 12 percent
undecided.
* wisconsin [univ. of wisconsin badger poll]: bush
leads kerry, 47 percent to 41 percent. nader has 5
percent. without nader, bush still leads: 49 to
45.
other polls don't look as bad:
* michigan [epic/mra]: kerry has 47, bush has 45
and 8 percent are undecided. with nader [3
percent], kerry still leads: 45 percent, bush 43
percent, with 9 percent undecided.
leading in pennsylvania, wisconsin, and new
mexico, states that should be going to kerry?
these are pretty disappointing results. and while
it is very early, it should be making any kerry
supporter worry about a bush victory in november.
