The Bridgeton News reports that the DCCC is
"actively recruiting" a candidate to run against Frank Lobiondo in New Jersey's 2nd congressional district. Their ideal candidate must be Jeff Van Drew, an extremely popular State Assemblyman from the 1st legislative district who would put NJ-02 in play immediately.
If you live in NJ-02, especially if you live in the 1st Legislative District as well (see bottom of diary for a list of municipalities in these districts), contact Assemblyman Jeff Van Drew, and tell him you think he should run for Congress against Frank LoBiondo. Van Drew is our best bet to take this district, which voted by <1% for Bush over Kerry.
LoBiondo is vulnerable in '06.
Frank LoBiondo hasn't really faced a tough challenge since he first won the seat in 1994. He has won over 60% in each of the six elections that he has won. Last time around, LoBiondo outspent Timothy Robb 138:1 and then thrashed him on election night 65-33. However, his job might not be as secure in '06. Congressional approval ratings are in the toilet, and the American people are (it seems) getting sick of republicans. New Jersey is growing increasingly hostile to republicans, as Jon Corzine's ten point pounding of Doug Forrester in the recent Gubernatorial election indicates. On top of all that, LoBiondo is
breaking his term limit promise by running in 2006.
Van Drew is the strongest Democratic candidate.
Our last candidate in this district, Timothy Robb was so bad that he didn't even have a website for most of the campaign, and when he finally made one, he filled it with asinine remarks such as this one: "I believe you could have a Abrams tank in your back yard if it has been properly registered with local officials." While Robin Weinstein, the only candidate who has announced his intention to run against LoBiondo in '06, isn't Timothy Robb, he starts the campaign with very little money and even less name recognition. In the first legislative district, Van Drew represents approximately 1/3 of LoBiondo's constituents. Van Drew's legislative district is solidly Republican, yet he appears to be immensly popular. In 2005, not only did the incumbent Van Drew won his district convincingly with 41,381 votes, but he carried the other Democrat on the ticket, Nelson Albano (32,500 votes), to victory over incumbent Republican John Gibson (25,324 votes). For comparison, in the 2002 congressional election, with turnout in New Jersey similar to that in 2005, LoBiondo beat Steven Farkas 112,831-46,826 in the entire 2nd district. Van Drew got 88% of Farkas's total over just 1/3 of the district, and the most Republican 1/3 at that. Van Drew's strength will ensure that the DCCC funds him well, getting him exposure on the Philly networks and thus in the rest of NJ-02, where there are more Democratic votes.
Even if Van Drew loses, running now will position him best to win the open seat when LoBiondo retires.
If LoBiondo gets to retire on his own accord (say, to run for US Senate in 2008 or 2012 or Governor in 2009), the race for his open seat will be one of the most fiercely contested in the nation. If he can fend off a primary challenge from the right, moderate State Senator Nicholas Asselta--who represents the same legislative district as Jeff Van Drew--will likely face off against Van Drew for the US House seat when NJ-02 opens up. In 2001, incumbent Asselta and Van Drew ran against one another for State Assembly, and while Van Drew (32,271) unseated the other incumbent Republican John Gibson (31,067), Asselta (36,392) recieved more votes than Van Drew. In '03, Asselta jumped from his state assembly seat to run for the open senate seat in the 1st legislative district, which he won unopposed. Van Drew passed up the chance to challege Asselta for the seat, instead opting to run for reelection to assembly. Even a failed run against LoBiondo would give Van Drew a district wide base and name recognition for a contest with Asselta over an open seat. LoBiondo won NJ-02 by a large margin in 1994 after losing 56-42 to longtime incumbent William Hughes the year before.
EDIT: The Republican bench is deep. State Senator William Gormley wanted the seat in '94, but LoBiondo beat him in a primary. Expect him to look to win this seat should LoBiondo retire soon. He is no less formidable than Asselta, so whoever the GOP picks, Van Drew will have his hands full. That's why he needs a head start against these guys (preferably incumbency).
Van Drew can run for Congress without surrendering his Assembly seat.
Since New Jersey does it in off years, Van Drew's Assembly seat is not up for election in 2006. If Van Drew loses, he will easily retain his Assembly seat in '07.
A tight race in NJ-02 will pull Republican money away from other races, particularly NJ-Sen.
The NJ Republican party is excited about Tom Kean Jr. running for Senate, if only because of his name. They will work hard to paint Kean as a moderate in the mold of his father rather than the far-right-wing State Senator that he really is. I'd rather see them spend the money trying to explain why the voters shouldn't help LoBiondo fulfill his term limit promise by sending Van Drew to Congress. Moreover, LoBiondo won't be raising money for fellow Republicans in '06 if he is in a close race for his own seat.
New Jersey 1st Legislative District:
- All of Cape May County
- In Atlantic County: Buena Boro, Buena Vista Township, Somers Point City
- In Cumberland County: Maurice River Township, Millville City, Vineland City
New Jersey 2nd Congressional District (NJ-02):
- All of Atlantic County
- All of Cape May County
- All of Cumberland County
- All of Salem County
- In Burlington County: Shamong, Washington
- In Camden County: Waterford
- In Gloucester County: Clayton, Elk, Franklin, Harrison, Mantua, Newfield, Pitman, South Harrison, Swedesboro, Woolwich
If you live there, do whatever you can to get
Jeff Van Drew to run for Congress.
