Remeber all those diaries speculation whether the world's Oil production has reached it's peak, AKA as Peak Oil or Hubbert's Peak ? And that this would put the world in an energy crisis ?
Well it peaked...
The proof is on this spam mail circulating around, "selling" Peak Oil and the energy crisis as a home biz opportunity, to fleece the clueless.
All we need now to make it official is a WWF fighter to call himself Hubbert's Peak and it will be all downhill from it...
A serious review of Peak Oil below the fold
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Oil shortages soon Summary:
This document reveals that within ten years:
* Oil extraction from wells will be physically
unable to meet global demand (the evidence is
from the oil industry itself)
* Alternative energy sources like nuclear and
natural gas will fall far short of compensating for
expected shortages of oil. There is simply not
enough time to convert over to them.
* Massive disruptions to transportation and the
economy are expected around 2010 when the final peak of production of all petroleum liquids
(globally) is followed by decline.
Most significant effects:
* Gradual, permanent cut-off of fuel for transport and for industrial machinery. Global trade will greatly decline.
* Agriculture (food production) depends heavily on fertilizers and made from oil).
* Shortages of 500,000 other goods made from oil.
* Therefore, reduction of virtually all business and government activity.
Difficulty of adapting: A major part of the problem is that existing equipment is designed only for oil fuels. For example, the world's 11,000 airliners cannot run on natural gas, nuclear or coal.
By-products of oil: Cost and decreasing availability of 500,000 known uses of oil: Fertilisers (farms/food supply), medicines, plastics, insulation, computers, asphalt, inks & toners, paints, glues, solvents, antiseptics, golf balls, CDs trash bags, nail polish, detergents, chewing gum, etc.
Hidden problem: Not only will the oil supply dwindle, but the shortages and climbing prices will obstruct industry as it attempts to convert society to other forms of energy.
Proof of impending shortages: Much uninformed literature says oil is plentiful and that better extraction will maintain adequate supply for decades yet. However, this sheet reveals:
- misleading reporting of oil inventories, by oil extracting countries.
- a clear, forty-year trend of less and less discovery of oil and dwindling outputs from the steadily-emptying wells.
Alternative energy sources will not prevent shortages:
Alternative fuels have been studied. As replacements for oil they are grossly inadequate both in quantity and versatility of use. There is insufficient time to prevent heavy impacts.
When, and how bad:
Year when global oil supply first fails to meet global demand: about 2009
When, and how bad:
Year when global oil supply first fails to meet global demand: about 2009. Conventional "easy-to-extract" oil peaks around 2005 but non-conventional will fail about 2009) See International Energy Agency tables and Petroconsultants of Geneva, a consultancy whose database is the most comprehensive available for data on oil resources that exists outside of continental North America, and is used as a 'bible' by all international oil companies.
The IEA is an international body set up under treaty by OECD including USA to deal specifically with the issue.of oil depletion. A conservative organization, it has however indirectly confirmed Campbell's assessment in its World Energy Outlook 1998. (See "IEA" slide explanation at http://www.hubbertpeak.com/campbell/commons.htm )
Laherrère's early work on seismic refraction surveys contributed to the discovery of Africa's largest oil field. At Total, a French oil company, Laherrère supervised exploration techniques worldwide.
Rate of decline of global oil supply: 3% every year from 2009 onward.
Rate of decline of global oil supply: from 2009 3% every year (permanently). From an address by Dr. Colin Campbell (see above.) at the British House of Commons on July 7th 1999. Read the address and accompanying PowerPoint slide show at http://www.hubbertpeak.com/campbell/commons.htm
Also: Dr. William Rees, article in Globe and Mail (Canadian national newspaper), 29 March, 2000 " Several recent studies project world oil production to peak by 2013 or sooner, possibly as soon as 2007. Even the necessarily conservative International Energy Agency in its World Energy Outlook, 1998 concurred for the first time that global output could top out between 2009 and 2012 and decline rapidly thereafter. IEA data project a nearly 20-per-cent shortfall of supply relative to demand by 2020 that will have to be made up of from "unidentified unconventional" sources (i.e.,known oil-sands deposits have already been taken into account)." William E. Rees is an ecological economist and professor in the University of British Columbia's School of Community and Regional Planning.
Duration of decline: Forever. Oil takes millions of years to form, in very special geological conditions.
Duration of decline:Forever. Chevron Learning Centre "Geologists generally agree that crude oil was formed over millions of years from the remains of tiny aquatic plants and animals that lived in ancient seas." http://www.chevron.com/explore/science/crude p>
Also, "Most North Sea and Middle East Oil was formed 140 million.years ago. Most US Gulf Coast-Mexico-Venezuela 90 million years ago". Dr. Colin Campbell (above), or read about the formation of petroleum at: http://www.hubbertpeak.com/campbell/commons.htm)
Barrels consumed globally per year: more than 22 billion in 1999. (About 2 billion barrels per month)
Barrels consumed globally per year: (IEA database, 1999. http://208.240.253.224/campbell.htm Increasing by 1.5% every year. (Campbell http://www.hubbertpeak.com/campbell/commons.htm )
"Barrels consuming [you will always run into the problem of what is being measured. Conventional oil only or all liquids] Also with discovery. Excluding deepwater there is long downward trend of discovery to about 6 Gb/a now, save for a spike this year of about 15-20 with the Caspian Kashagan East discovery. With the deepwater (apart from the spike) it is about 11 Gb, with the deepwater trend still rising." (Colin Campbell, private email, June 2000)
Barrels discovered globally per year: about 6 billion. (that is, conventional, not including 8 billion of hard-to-get deep sea, oil sand, and other oils.Discovery of oil fluctuates each year, but peaked in the 1960s, and has declined at an average of about 9 billion barrels per year over the past 40 years. We've mostly just been using up huge old oil fields.
Barrels Discovered Extracted Consumed
U.S.A.
(15 yr.1977-1991 5 Billion 45 Billion 92 Billion
World
(10yr.1982-91) 91 Billion 221 Billion 221 Billion
From http://users.knsi.com/~tbender/ivanhoe.html
Barrels of new oil discovered per year: 6 billion in 1999, from book: The Coming Oil Crisis, p. 52 by Colin Campbell, based on the oil industry's biggest and most respected database. It is described as "The most extensive petroleum database in the world covering E&P contracts, exploratory wells, development drilling, oil and gas fields, geological provinces, geophysical surveys, companies, installations and cultural features". Senior industry geologists' views on Campbell & Laherrere's arguments are summarised in the Petroleum Review (Cope 1998).
Also, comment by oil depletion researcher, Brian Fleay (refs. below): "There was general acceptance of the substance of their arguments; that the bulk of remaining discovery will be in ever smaller fields within established provinces. But most thought 400 billion barrels might remain to be discovered. However, Campbell points out that it would take 35 years to find their 210 billion barrels at present discovery rates. He says present conventional oil will drive production over the peak - it is too late for these other options to alter the timing of the peak." Fleay was presenting a paper about the coming oil crash at the Chartered Institute of Transport in Australia, National Symposium, Launceston Tasmania 6-7 November 1998.He is B.J Fleay B Eng, M Eng Sc, MIEAust, MAWWA Associate of the Institute for Sustainability and Technology Policy Murdoch University, Western Australia The graph and Fleay's paper are at http://wwwistp.murdoch.edu.au/OilFleay/climaxingoil.html#4.2
and Fleay has a Web site at http://www.oilcrisis.com/ showing supporting articles from the Scientific American (March 98), the London Observer (July 98.)
More information
Documented evidence
This sheet, and all references and authorities for this information are available for download by temporarily joining the RunningOnEmpty internet forum
mentioned below. In MyGroups page, click the Files section. It is among the first files.
Web sites
The oil die-off is explained in up-to-date detail at www.hubbertpeak.com, and www.dieoff.org Both sites are keyword-searchable, with scientific and oil industry literature about this topic. It is heavily annotated with authoritative references.
Discussion forum - Technical/scientific: www.egroups.com/group/energyresources
Discussion forum-Implications, action: www.egroups.com/group/RunningOnEmpty
Author of this sheet: Bruce Thomson (moderator of RunningOnEmpty forum at www.egroups.com/group/RunningOnEmpty) and helped by members of those groups.
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