Here's the thing - economic measurements are often revised, and this one could change more favorably. But the bottom line is that right now, contrary to what we're constantly being told by the Right, the experts DON'T think the economy is that strong.
We find out today that 4th quarter growth was the most anemic in three years:
The American economy grew at its slowest pace in three years in the fourth quarter, the government reported today, as spending by consumers and the federal government weakened significantly.
We know Bush will grasp at economic growth as a strength of his service in office during the State of the Union, but we'll need to get the truth out before and after. Among other things, the news comes as somewhat of a shock to economists who anticipated more:
The nation's gross domestic product, the broadest measure of domestically produced goods and services, increased at a 1.1 percent annual rate in the quarter, to $11.23 trillion, and the economy posted a 3.5 percent growth rate for the full year, the Commerce Department reported. This is the first of three estimates that the government releases and the revisions it makes can be significant.
Economists had expected growth to slow to 2.8 percent in the fourth quarter because sales of automobiles and other goods were known to have fallen significantly from earlier in the year. The economy grew at a 4.1 percent annual pace in the third quarter, 3.3 percent in the second and 3.8 percent in the first three months of last year.
And it appears consumer spending might be grinding to a halt.
But maybe more critically, it looks like business spending is NOT filling the void as it was expected to:
Increased investments by businesses, which many forecasters had expected to bolster the economy in the absence of strong consumer spending, increased by 12.2 percent over all but fell short of expectations, especially in the categories of industrial equipment and software.
Of course, government spending in New Orleans will no doubt push growth in coming years - but that's more of a Keynesian style stimulus than anything related to Bush's bedrock tax policy. He shouldn't be allowed to give credit to the latter because of the former.
This is also important because it seems to align tangible benchmarks with the consistent findings in polls that Americans have a fairly bleak economic outlook.
Just trying to keep the economy up there on the priority list.