Dean, Clark, and Survival to Super Tuesday

I don't expect that we will see much movement in the Clark campaign until the immediate effects of the Dean campaign's shake-up are more visible. I don't think that will happen until after the Maine caucuses on February 8.

While I do not expect Dean to place first in any of the February 2/3 primaries and caucuses, and even though it is increasingly looking like Michigan is lost to him, a first in Maine and/or Washington on February 7/8 will keep Dean in play.

I do think that a first in one of those two states or an unexpected first somewhere else on 2, 3, or 7 will keep Dean going. But there has to be a win in one of those primaries or caucuses. No win in February is going to make for a very long and depressing slog through to Super Tuesday.

My scenario is this: Due to early synergies between the Draft Clark and Dean camps and the seemingly polar opposition between the Dean and Kerry camps, if Dean calls it quits after a winless February, I would hope this would give Clark's campagin a boost into the sole alternative choice to Kerry. I certainly don't see it benefiting any other candidate currently in the race. Of course there is another thing that has to happen here: Clark has to rack up enough seconds and a win or two on 2, 3, 7, or 8 to stay viable until Super Tuesday. Kerry's momentum from Iowa and New Hampshire is really turning the tide for him in the February states.