Below is the lead
Washington Post article released at a point in the 1992 campaign roughly equivalent to next Wednesday. Let's all remember to breathe. Even with a more front-loaded schedule than 1992, these things will take some time to sort out.
The Washington Post
Wednesday, March 4, 1992
A SECTION
Tsongas Wins Maryland, Clinton Georgia; Buchanan Again Gets Large Protest Vote;
Brown Prevails In Colorado Test
Thomas B. Edsall; Dan Balz
ashington Post Staff Writers
Former Massachusetts senator Paul E. Tsongas, showing strength beyond New England, won the Maryland primary and the Utah caucuses yesterday, while Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton scored a decisive victory in the Georgia primary.
But on a day that continued the inconsistent pattern of the Democratic presidential race, former California governor Edmund G. "Jerry" Brown Jr., was the surprise winner in the Colorado primary and Iowa Sen. Tom Harkin eked out a victory in the Idaho caucus.
Two other states - Minnesota and Washington - held caucuses yesterday, with preliminary samples of selected precincts showing Harkin running ahead in Minnesota and Tsongas leading in Washington. Final results in those two states may not be immediately available.
The results establish Tsongas and Clinton as the front-runners in the fight for the Democratic nomination, which now enters a potentially decisive phase.
Tsongas's victories in Maryland and Utah, after earlier wins in New Hampshire and Maine, prove his claim that he is more than a regional candidate. But the Colorado results were a disappointment to the former senator, who led the polls in the final week only to fade to third in the face of a surge by Brown and his campaign against politics as usual.
In combination with his second-place finish in Colorado, Clinton's impressive margin in Georgia - his first win of the campaign - gave him a boost for the round of largely southern primaries that will be held on Super Tuesday next week. Those will be followed on March 17 by the key northern battlegrounds of Illinois and Michigan.
Brown's upset victory in Colorado gave a strong boost to a campaign that has been repeatedly dismissed since he declared his candidacy last fall, pledging to rid politics of the corrupt influence of money.
Harkin, whose candidacy had appeared to be on the ropes, will use his caucus showings to try to persuade organized labor to continue to provide money and manpower for upcoming primaries in industrial states.
Nebraska Sen. Bob Kerrey, who had once hoped to win Colorado, was running poorly in all three states with primaries. Apparently shut out across the country yesterday, he now faces a crucial decision about whether to remain in the race.
Despite the results, Democratic voters in Georgia and Maryland expressed dissatisfaction with the field of candidates. Nearly half the voters in the two states said they would "like to see someone else" enter the contest for the nomination.
In Georgia, with 99 percent of the precincts reported, the results were Clinton 57 percent, Tsongas 24 percent, Brown 8 percent, Kerrey 5 percent, and Harkin 2 percent. In Maryland, with 100 percent of the precincts reported, the results were Tsongas 41 percent, Clinton 34 percent, Brown 8 percent, Harkin 6 percent, and Kerrey 5 percent. In Colorado, with 95 percent of the precincts reported, the results were Brown 30 percent, Clinton 28 percent, Tsongas 26 percent, Kerrey 12 percent, and Harkin 2 percent.
"They said that I was a regional candidate," Tsongas told supporters at a rally in Columbia, S.C. "They're right: North, South, East and West." Referring to Clinton, he said, "They had the money, they had the endorsements. All we had was the people."
[Clinton quotes and analysis snipped]
A jubilant Brown, campaigning in Arizona, said he was fighting for the lead in Colorado, even though "we didn't have the party leadership, we didn't have the $1,000 contributors, we didn't have anybody." Calling himself the alternative to Clinton and Tsongas, Brown said, "The Democratic race is not solidified by any means."
The Associated Press estimated on the basis of partial returns that Clinton would win at least 106 national convention delegates to 77 for Tsongas, 23 for Brown and 1 for Kerrey. Clinton's campaign also released the names of 66 more elected officials who will go to the convention as "Super Delegates" supporting the Arkansas governor.
According to exit polls, Clinton defeated Tsongas by nearly 5 to 1 among blacks in Georgia and by a little better than 2 to 1 in Maryland, and his vote was far stronger among less-well educated, poor voters in both states. Among Georgia Democrats without high school diplomas, for example, Clinton beat Tsongas 81 to 13 percent while Tsongas carried those with post-graduate degrees 41 to 36 percent.
Clinton did well among voters who placed high importance on electability, experience and loyalty to the Democratic Party. He also did well among voters who want a candidate who "cares about people like me."
But, there were danger signs as well. Among voters who placed a high priority on supporting a candidate "who has shown strength and courage in life" and those seeking a candidate who "has specific ideas," Clinton was running well below his percentage among all voters. Clinton also did less well among the relatively small fraction of Democratic voters seeking a candidate who "will uphold family values."
In Georgia, Clinton did far better among voters who consider themselves Democrats, 64 percent, than among independents voting in the state's open primary, 45 percent, according to exit polls.
Tsongas's base of support is in many respects the opposite of Clinton's: his voters are disproportionately upscale, white, well-educated and members of the Baby-Boom generation. They tend to be environmentalists, consider the ability of the United States to compete internationally to be very important, and want a president they consider courageous.
The controversy over Clinton's draft status hurt him in Maryland, where those who viewed his actions unfavorably outnumbered those who had favorable impressions by 3 to 1, and by 2 to 1 in Georgia. Those who were unfavorable voted overwhelmingly for Tsongas in both states. Clinton ran five points below his statewide average among veterans in Georgia.
Just under a fifth of the voters in both states said they were "concerned" about Tsongas's "ability to serve effectively as
president because he had cancer," and Tsongas's margins fell dramatically among these voters.
Tsongas's stand toward business is a key issue among Democratic voters. In Georgia, the fifth of the electorate that considered Tsongas to be too pro-business voted for Clinton over Tsongas by a striking 24 to 1. Just under half the Democrats who said Tsongas's views were about right, and among these voters Tsongas beat Clinton by about 10 percentage points, according to the exit polls.
The biggest stakes yesterday were in Georgia, with 76 national convention delegates, but attention shifted in recent days to the primaries in Maryland, with 67 delegates, and in Colorado, with 47.
Maryland and Colorado gained significance because all the earlier contests - Iowa, New Hampshire, South Dakota and Maine - were won by regionally favored candidates. Maryland and Colorado became, in effect, the first nonregional tests, while the status of the Georgia contest was reduced to a southern regional primary favoring Clinton.
The contest in Colorado developed into a three-way race in the final days. After his victory in New Hampshire, Tsongas quickly pulled ahead of Clinton. But Brown decided to concentrate his efforts in the state and began to gain on Tsongas and Clinton as the election neared. A strong performance in Saturday's debate, where Clinton and Tsongas tangled in an angry exchange, may have given his campaign another boost.
In Georgia, Clinton locked up virtually every significant endorsement in the state, from Gov. Zell Miller down to state representatives and Democratic county chairmen. Poll data showed that the draft controversy, which received less publicity there than in New Hamsphire, had not seriously wounded Clinton, but the fact that his support among men was far higher than among women suggested that the allegations of infidelity hurt him.
Altogether, the seven states (plus American Samoa) holding primaries or caucuses yesterday will send 383 delegates to July's Democratic convention in New York. While the three primary states attracted most of the attention of the candidates and the media, the caucuses provided roughly half of the delegates up for grabs.
[stuff about upcoming contests in Minnesota and Washington snipped]
Staff writers David S. Broder in South Carolina, Guy Gugliotta in Arizona, David Von Drehle in Florida and staff researcher Mark Stencel contributed to this report.
