Forgoing the pleasure of making a 250 mile RT to see Kerry in Albuquerque last night, I went instead to a training session from VoterProtection via the San Miguel County (NM) Dem Central Committee in Las Vegas, NM. They were after poll watchers and challengers, to be placed in every precinct. They had a lot of detail, which I'm not going to share, about strategy and their expectations of Republican tactics, but what most impressed me was the analysis of Dem voting strength in NM.
Essentially, according to a Dem official named Cruz, whose last name went by me, as there were three guys there named Cruz, the seediest looking of which was a city councilor. Outside of big cities like Albuquerque and Santa Fe, there are no dress codes, which is one of the wonderful things about New Mexico. Anyway, to go back to Cruz's analysis, essentially, two counties in the North, Rio Arriba and San Miguel, each of which is the size of a small New England state, are the bastions of Dem power in the state. They went over 70% for Gore in 2000. Albuquerque is a tie, Santa Fe and Taos are both fairly small. The south is more Republican. If the Dems get their voters out in those two counties, they win.
It goes without saying that these two counties are overwhelmingly Hispanic, and a distinct and clannish Hispanic, these folks being mostly descendants of folks from New Spain and even a few from Old Spain, who settled Northern New Mexico starting in 1598, mostly via Mexico. Hispanic Democrats have pretty much total control of the levers of county government. Even though, realistically, there isn't a lot of chance for ReThug disruption or tampering here, they are taking no chances
Then there are the Indians, who group out into Pueblos, Apaches and Navajos, around 15% of the state population. They are pretty savvy, politically, and I hear they are organized this year, although I don't much know about these folks' political organization. They are taken very seriously in this state, very much part of the action and not marginalised.
Rumors are abounding in the area (I heard it in Santa Fe and Las Vegas) that Clinton is coming, possibly to Espanola,(Rio Arriba) this week, although I have seen no confirmation of this in the media. Anybody hear anything?
What I heard of the GOTV plans were just awesome in their detail and organization. The GOTV on Election Day will be connected to the poll watchers, all with cell phones, who are being directed to report immediately any infractions or challenges to a central point (phone number is NOT disclosed until Tuesday morning). State HQ will be able to detect any emerging patterns of harrassment early and act accordingly. As precincts report in, levels of turn-out can be monitored.
The group, about 100 folks, that showed up, exceeded the organizers expectations, and we were crowded into an upstairs room of a historic building on the Plaza. Ages ran the full spectrum, and perhaps 25% of the folks were Anglos, including the main presenters, Carol Oppenhiemer and Morty Simon, who did a great job of laying out the training, after a round of rousing speeches by the local Dem Establishment (Mayor, County Clerk, DA, a County Commissioner, a City Councilman, two State Senators and the County Party Head, all Hispanics). A lot of "what ifs" were discussed, such as remembering to remind voters they have to push the "VOTE" button at the bottom of the machine after making all their selections on our reliable 20-year-old machines that don't involve computers at all. We were told that, under NM law, ANY person who shows up, on the list or not, can vote a provisional paper ballot, whose validity will be determined later. There are also "emergency Ballots" which are to be on hand at all precincts in case the machines screw up, so that the voting can continue. Nothing is to be allowed to disrupt the "orderly process of voting".
New Mexico will go Democratic this year, and it won't be by 366 votes, either. I will also predict the retirement of Heather Wilson at the hands of KosDozener Richard Romero, who will ride Kerry's coattails into Congress. It is written.
