GrimReefa's Revised Oscar Handicap

I did my initial Handicap when the nominees were announced, and before I had seen any of the movies that got nominated for the big prize.  Well, I've still only seen one of the Best Picture noms (the as good as advertised Brokeback Mountain), but I feel I have a better handle on who could win tonight.

So, without further ado..

Supporting Actor
George Clooney - 40%
Paul Giamatti - 35%
Jake Gyllenhaal - 20%
Matt Dillon - 4%
William Hurt - 1%

Supporting Actress
Rachael Weisz - 75%
Michelle Williams - 15%
Catherine Keener - 5%
Frances McDormand - 4%
Amy Adams - 1%

Actor
Phillip Seymour Hoffman - 50%
Heath Ledger - 30%
Joaquin Phoenix - 18%
Terrance Howard - 1%
David Strathairn - 1%

Actress
Reese Witherspoon - 60%
Felicity Huffman - 35%
Charlize Theron - 2%
Keira Knightley - 2%
Judi Dench - 1%

Screenplay, Adapted
Munich - 40%
Brokeback Mountain - 30%
Capote - 15%
The Constant Gardener - 10%
A History of Violence - 5%

Screenplay, Original
Crash - 40%
Good Night, And Good Luck - 30%
Syriana - 28%
Match Point - 1%
The Squid And the Whale - 1%

Director
Brokeback Mountain - 65%
Munich - 25%
Good Night, And Good Luck 8%
Capote - 1%
Crash - 1%

Picture
Brokeback Mountain - 85%
Crash - 10%
Munich - 2%
Capote - 2%
Good Night, And Good Luck - 1%

Note: A lot of Oscar handicappers feel as though Crash got some late momentum with widespread screening for Academy members and the SAG win for Ensemble Performance.  But In my opinion the SAG Ensemble Award is in no way relevant to winning Best Picture, and I would be shocked if Brokeback Mountain didn't win.