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GALLUP: repeating 2000 mistakes

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by bullet2382

Community

(This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Sunday, Oct. 17, 2004 Sunday, Oct. 17, 2004 at 9:27:13am PDT

Ignore GALLUP, Remember 2000?

This is what Gallup told us in 2000:
ALL LV

Oct17

Bush 48
Gore 42

Note: Gore went on to win the popular vote.

Oct18

Bush 49
Gore 39

Note: Gore went on to win the popular vote.

Oct19

Bush 50
Gore 40

Note: Gore went on to win the popular vote.

Oct20

Bush 51
Gore 40

Note: Gore went on to win the popular vote.

Oct21

Bush 50
Gore 41

Note: Gore went on to win the popular vote.

Oct22

Bush 46
Gore 44

Note: Gore went on to win the popular vote.

Oct23

Bush 45
Gore 46

Note: Gore went on to win the popular vote.

Oct 24

Bush 48
Gore 43

Note: Gore went on to win the popular vote.

Oct25

Bush 49
Gore 42

Note: Gore went on to win the popular vote.

Oct26

Bush 52
Gore 39

Note: Gore went on to win the popular vote.

Oct27

Bush 49
Gore 42

Note: Gore went on to win the popular vote.

Oct28

Bush 49
Gore 42

Note: Gore went on to win the popular vote.

Oct30

Bush 47
Gore 44

Note: Gore went on to win the popular vote.

Oct31

Bush 48
Gore 43

Note: Gore went on to win the popular vote.

Nov1

Bush 47
Gore 43

Note: Gore went on to win the popular vote.

Nov2

Bush 48
Gore 42

Note: Gore went on to win the popular vote.

Nov3

Bush 47
Gore 43

Note: Gore went on to win the popular vote.

Nov4

Bush 48
Gore 43

Note: Gore went on to win the popular vote.

Nov5

Bush 47
Gore 45

Note: Gore went on to win the popular vote.

Nov6 (last poll before the election)

Bush 48
Gore 46

So as you can see, Gallup is not very consistent. It's amazing that Bush moved from 13 point leads to four points leads in a matter of days. Why? Because polls are not very accurate until the end. And even at the end of 2000, Gallup was predicting a Bush victory in the popular vote.

So don't get down, go to www.emergingdemocraticmajority.org and read about how inaccurate polling can be. Remember in 2000 in the closing weeks, of 43 polls 39 showed a Bush win