Quick thoughts while tired.
I am a Deanie. I just accepted my label, even though I have been dabbling for months now. But, I can admit it.
I am not terribly worried about the current polls. I think that if Trippi were to wargame this, he might be pretty content to be tied and in trouble five days out.
Months ago, I wrote that the greatest danger to this campaign is complacency. All of the DFA conversations about VP's were so premature and arrogant. So, the erosion in the polls has a benefit. Now, all of those letter writers are extra-motivated. Have you seen the letter total just drop through the floor all day? Thousands of Deanies are scared and motivated. I will bet a few hundred extra volunteers are on their way thanks to the sinking poll numbers and negative articles. Deanies are lousy front runners but they are great under dogs.
Second, Trippi has been planning this one for years. He will have snow shovelers and volunteers in the smallest counties in the state, russling up the rural vote. I suspect there are some scary preparations set. Coach Buses with food traveling the countryside like Avis buses. Phone lists and drivers and wranglers in the room. I would love to see the tactical book for this caucus.
Third, even with a loss, it becomes a pyrrhic victory for either Gephardt or Kerry. They have lost so much money and time here that recovery is going to be incredibly difficult.
So, I am not worried. Let it ride. I wish I was there.
(PS I think Clark would be a good President, just not as good as Howard. I hope that both of them run a positive campaigns that attack Bush mercilessly.)