Checking the email this morning, I saw a new message from MoveOn.org asking for money. Being a high-school student, I normally don't check these things, but I soon realized it involved my district, CT-5.
MoveOn recently launched some attack ads harshly critisizing Nancy Johnson (R-Pharma) on her involvement in drafting and promoting the recent Medicare changes. Rep. Johnson replied by launching far harsher attack ads of her own, dragging out Murphy's 'connection' with an organization (MoveOn) that called Bush a Nazi. Obviously this was all trumped up, and Murphy replied that he wasn't involved with MoveOn in any way, though of course he never did say he disapproved of the ads.
Well apparantly MoveOn was using my district as a test bed, and was wildly sucessful.
The email was a plea for money to start running similar ads in districts with Medicare-tainted representatives all across the country. What's interesting is that apparently they did some test polling.
Now, so far Murphy hasn't been given much of a chance. Johnson has millions more than he does, and CT-5 is the most Republican of Connecticut's districts, with Bush getting 50% of the vote in 2004. That's not mentioning Johnson's 24 years of incumbancy. Compared to our other hot races, Diane Farrell (CT-4), Joe Courtney (CT-2), and Ned Lamont for Senate, Murphy hasn't recieved nearly as much attention. Yet what caught my eye was this section of the email:
Before the ad ran, Republican Nancy Johnson led Democratic challenger Chris Murphy 47% to 46%. After the ad Johnson is down 41% to 51%. That is a HUGE shift.
You're telling me! This hasn't been a widely polled race, and I don't think anybody thought that Murphy was tied with Johnson, much less beating her by 10 Points!
If this poll is accurate, this upgrades the race from lean-Republican to toss-up, if not lean Democrat. MoveOn.org has pulled off quite a feat, but this should also stand as testimate to Chris Murphy's excellent campaigning, and Nancy Johnson's ability to shoot herself in the foot. I'll be working for Ned Lamont this summer, but now if I decide to leave after the primary I know who I'll be working for.
Update: Connecticut Local Politcs contacted MoveOn and has the specifics for this poll. It was 400 likely voters in both cases. The rest can be found in the above link.
