Iran is a big scary country. We have to be protected. That is the meme: scare the people, then have a big war fest right before the election.
Iran has produced a wee bit of fissionable material. Iran has run less than 200 centerfuges. Iran claims it will be running 3,000. It took them 20 years to get 160 to run. You think they are going to be running 3000 soon? That is simply not going to happen.
What Iran has now ...
is the ability to make a dirty bomb. To make an nuclear explosion is not so easy. What is required is:
- lots of neutrons (provided by D/T trigger gas)
- a careful initiation
- a delivery system
So basically the most simple design is a russian egg doll, with D/T in the middle and a set of explosive devices used to force the fissionable material together to get a reaction. The D/T is the middle is heated by the compression and any initial fission and produces neutron. Without the addition neutrons you cannot sustain fission in a configuration that is reliably stable without a trigger. Without the perfect sphere pushing all the fissionable material together you have no yield.
After you have managed this - and building the device to create the fission reaction is as difficult as extracting the material - then you have to deliver it. Fed Ex won't carry this baby. You have to deliver it carefully, so after you shoot it up it won't blow up on you. Missle design is not trivial.
So Iran has been working on fissionable material for many years. They have at least three years to go to weaponize the material. So why are we worried now?
Well Iran has an increasingly unpopular president who ran as a somewhat conservative populist and is governing as a religious nut. Gosh, sound familiar?
The D's in Congress need to take action. That action must include a statement that no military activity against Iran will occur within 90 days of the election. Nor will the administration request action within 90 days. The D's in Congress also have to state that the US isn't at war with Iran, and the resolution passed on Iraq DOESN'T COVER THIS.
If you think this isn't about Rove you are seriously deluded.
