The Kerry Rise Is a Great Thing

Look at things strategically.

Kerry wamped Dean, so Dean got to retool himself just in time for the NH primary.

Kerry is now the one who is taking it easy by not campaigning as hard, taking fewer risks.  It doesn't pay, as we saw in Iowa.  There, Kerry went all out, and Dean took it easy.  Kerry has only a few scheduled events in NH.  Not good.

Kerry is now in a fight with Clark for the military vote in NH, and Kerry's winning.  It is not a Dean-Clark race like we thought.

A week after NH, it was supposed to be Dean vs. Clark all the way.  But Kerry is taking down Clark for Dean in NH.  If Kerry keeps this up, all the voters going for Clark later on are going to split their vote between Clark and Kerry.  Dean will benefit.

If NH comes out Dean-Kerry-Clark (and it could), Dean wins the whole thing.  He got #1 back, Clark and Kerry are fighting for second.  And Edwards is going to sneak in there to further dilute their voters.

If NH comes out Kerry-Dean-Clark (and it probably will), it's still the case that Kerry has neutralized Clark in the subsequent races.  The biggest factor would then be whether Kerry can take his two #1 finishes to the other states and win there.  I doubt it.

This is the best scenario for Dean.  If Kerry is still in first after NH, but Dean gets a close second, the press will go ga-ga over Kerry's inevitability, Clark will be neutralized, and Dean will keep his lead in the other Tuesday contests.

With Kerry doing so well, I'm not sure there is a rising Phoenix scenario for Clark in this.

This is predicated on no major gaffes harped on by the press, and we know how likely that is.  :)